2-3 Week Holiday from Hurricanes?

Yes, after Erin and a probable Fernand, the tropical Atlantic will struggle to produce anything for a while. Details in “Long-Range Ramblings”.

Back to Erin for a second. It’s causing more coastal issues that you might expect from a storm that only got as close as 200 miles from Cape Hatteras. Reason: It was a huge storm with hurricane force winds extending 105 miles away from the center this morning. Big storms move a lot of water and create larger waves. Storm size is rarely mentioned compared to the storm category, yet is very important. Most hurricanes we’ve seen in recent years are smaller than the classic damaging storms of the 1940s-1960s.

Closer to home….a much better, almost certain chance of showers tomorrow and still better than average chance for most of us on Saturday courtesy of an upper air trough. But the upper air ridge will build back in for Sunday shutting off the showers until late Tuesday at the earliest.

The Foreca graphic looks good. Tomorrow should feature widespread showers and storms with enough cloud cover to keep the temperatures at or below the 90 degree mark. Many locations should get a half inch to an inch. On Saturday, the showers and storms will be more hit and miss in all areas except Northern Tangipahoa and Washington Parishes which should remain rain free. Amounts should be lighter and there will be more sun.

Then, the area should be practically bone dry and hot from Sunday through early afternoon Tuesday. A few days of mid 90s seems a good bet. Some showers could pop up late Tuesday, but more likely next Wednesday and Thursday.

The satellite image shows the current state of affairs with Erin pulling off to the northeast well away from any land. Interestingly, the highest storm surge is expected in Delaware and New Jersey tonight at the time of high astronomical tide even though the storm is moving away. Also shown are 90L, which will likely be the future Fernand. and another disturbance north of Brazil and closer to the African Coast.

The official NHC forecast gives a 70% chance of 90L developing into Fernand with a track that is to the right of the one Erin took (red hatched area). No one needs to be concerned about this except possibly Bermuda. I think a high-end tropical storm or weak Cat. 1 hurricane is the most likely strength and believe it will quickly start to die once it gets near or just north of 35 degree latitude.

The orange-hatched disturbance behind it is interesting. NHC is giving this a moderate chance of development, and indeed it faces a lot of challenges making it across the Atlantic and, if it survives, once in the Caribbean. The challenges are the usual culprits: wind shear and dry, dusty mid-level air. None of the models are developing it. But, this disturbance has been a feisty fighter so far, and it might just make it to the Caribbean if it stays far enough south. That said, I doubt its going to do more than give a few islands some showers.

On to the long-range. The ECMWF calculates the probability of at least a tropical storm based on its modeling. Those odds for the next week are shown below. As you can see: Nothing here except Erin on its way to Merry ‘Ole England. Week Two forecasts (not shown here) are almost identical. Reason why the lack of storms: Air is sinking in the mid-levels over the Atlantic because we’ve in the wrong phase of the Madden-Julian.

However, for week three (Shown below), notice that the chances improve further out into the Atlantic, north of the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico. That leads me to believe that we’re in for a 2-3 week holiday from hurricanes before activity picks up again. So, treat this like a long halftime at a game. Enjoy the respite, but the “game” will begin again after the first week of September.

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach shows a wet Friday and Saturday, a somewhat better Sunday, some nice, but hot weather Monday-Wednesday before the showers and storms move back in.