2025 Pre-"Hurricane Season" Insights

Unlike last year, where all the signs screamed “Above Normal Hurricane Season”, this year’s signals using sea surface temperature (SST) patterns and long-range modeling paint a different picture. Though the total number will be lower than last year, I still anticipate several land-falling storms, including some in the Gulf. Here’s six aspects to the season that I expect:

1) Even with the reduction, the total number of tropical storms and hurricanes should be a bit above normal. Unlike last year, more of those storms will be “fish storms” that don’t impact anyone. Nevertheless, I expect the East Coast and Florida to be especially vulnerable to several land-falling hurricanes and tropical storms. Some places, like Long Island, New England, and the Miami-Palm Beach area haven’t had a storm in decades - this could be the year.

2) There will be a substantial difference from west to east across the Northern Gulf Coast with Texas less likely to see activity and the FL Panhandle more likely. My guess is that the area from SE Louisiana though the entire FL Panhandle will see one hurricane and a tropical storm or two.

3) After the possible first development in the Western Caribbean in late May or early June, developments are more likely to happen within 300 miles of the U.S. rather than towards Africa or in the Caribbean. With warm SSTs near the coast, including the Northern Gulf, and little wind shear, these storms could intensify all the way to shore. The difficulty may be getting them to initially develop because the dynamics of low-level inflow and upper-level outflow will, on average, be weaker this year. All this adds up to trickier-than-usual forecasts with less lead time. 

4) One area that seems primed for development is the Bermuda Triangle one, but I’m going to call it a polygon from Charleston, SC to Bermuda to Puerto Rico to Miami. Storms that develop here are more likely to head into Carolina’s or up the East Coast, especially this year given the expected wind and pressure patterns. However, about 15% of the time, a blocking high further north turns these storms west across the peninsula of Florida and into the Gulf. That happened with Katrina, Camille, Betsy, and the 1947 storm. That’s the scenario we have to be concerned about. It's not likely this year, but I’d be negligent if I didn’t mention the slight possibility.

5) Land-falling storms in the Gulf are more likely to be home-grown this year and less likely to arrive from Africa or the Eastern Caribbean. 

6) On a positive note, if you are thinking about a Caribbean vacation, this would be a good year for many locations. Expect below normal activity for the Yucatan, Belize, Roatan, Grand Cayman, Jamaica, and my favorite: the ABC islands (Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao).  Areas further northeast such as the Virgin Islands and the Windward and Leeward islands are always good through late July.

So what’s the logic behind this. First, let’s look at the SST Anomalies shown above (Difference from average). Note the colder than normal SSTs off the African coast extending well out into the Atlantic. That’s very different than last year and you don’t get hyperactive seasons with this pattern. SSTs in the Main Development Region (MDR - generally from the islands to Africa) is about average and is expected to remain so. That’s the reason why I’m expecting few Cape Verde storms and a below normal activity in the Southern Caribbean.

Then, look at where the SSTs are warm – areas much further north and west than usual, such as off the coast of the US including the Northern Gulf of Mexico. That’s why I’m expecting development closer to the U.S.

Next, look at the European model forecasts of precipitation anomaly shown above where the greens represent above normal rain and browns below normal for the July-September season. The overall pattern forecasts drier conditions in the Western Gulf than Eastern Gulf – that’s why I think there will be a big East-West difference in tropical activity across the Northern Gulf.

As long as you look at the big picture and not the little wiggles, there really is some skill in these seasonal forecasts. That’s an amazing development in meteorology.

Third, there’s a European model forecast of mean sea level pressure for the summer. The key here is noting that the Bermuda High’s average position is closer to the Azores well to the northeast of Bermuda. Storms tend to rotate around the western periphery of that high and get blocked from going near it. Since it is so far removed, most of the storms that develop in the Western Atlantic will tend to move north or northwest as opposed to the west. This means that developments there are more likely to hit the Carolinas or New England.

However, the position of the Bermuda High and upper-level flow on any given day may be substantially different than the mean.  Bermuda High positions tend to favor the mean 80 percent of the time, and migrate elsewhere 20% of the time. That’s why I have to throw in the caveat that a storm developing north of the Bahamas could move in our direction if a high blocked its movement to the north.

Other than very early and late season storms, most Caribbean storms tend to develop in the MDR. With MDR temperatures now normal and trending slightly below normal, that’s why I don’t expect much activity there.