50s by Mid-Week; More Cold on Saturday

I’m posting a little early because I’ll be trying to protect my citrus this evening. Yesterday was quite wacky across St. Tammany with temperatures rising by morning, then falling during the afternoon, then rising again last night, before the much anticipated strong front blew through by this morning. At 8 AM today it was 73 in Bogalusa the same time it was 34 in McComb and 29 with snow in Natchez! I hope you weren’t on the Causeway at 9 AM when Lakefront airport reported wind gusts to 50, a thunderstorm, and Arctic sea smoke fog streaming off the lake reducing visibility to a quarter mile.

Things will get more tame, but colder today. Rain should taper off during the afternoon hours; temperatures and the hard freeze will roll in by tomorrow morning. Monday will be the coldest during the day; Tuesday early AM will feature the coldest low temperatures. Morning lows will stay near or below freezing through Thursday and then another system will drop temperatures again for an encore performance Friday night and Saturday morning. Lows at or below freezing Friday night plus Saturday highs in the low 40s may well cancel parades for the first serious weekend of Mardi Gras. More details follow.

Tonight will go below freezing anytime from near midnight to 3 AM. There won’t be ice on the roads, but puddles on the side will certainly freeze. Tomorrow morning’s low of 25 in the Foreca graphic looks about right (about 30 Southshore). With a wind of 10-15 mph gusting to 20, wind chills will be well down into the teens. With the winds staying up, there won’t be much variation from place to place — maybe a 23 up towards Bogalusa. Monday’s high of only 42 makes it a great day for gumbo or red beans and rice plus the chance to wear your favorite sweater.

Tuesday AM lows will show some variation with upper teens to near 20 quite common across suburban and rural Northshore. More protected areas might stop at about 23 and 28 looks reasonable south of the lake. Then, a modest warming trend begins, but note that lows will still be below freezing through Thursday. Highs on Friday could reach the mid 50s before another system moves through. This system could give a chance of some light rain, or maybe even sleet late Friday through early Saturday AM. But I’ll explain why I think the chances are low and the amounts, if they occur will be light. The more important news is another drop in temperatures with Saturday AM lows near freezing and afternoon highs only near 43.

This map shows the German ICON model forecast for later Friday with a storm in the Gulf. The green, yellows and reds show the precipitation. Most models are keeping the precip. south of New Orleans with the low actually heading further south in the Gulf (red arrow) instead of the typical east to northeast. A high in Minnesota is pumping down cold air (green arrows) in our direction. There’s so much cold air blowing in to the system’s north and little warm air blowing north to its east. That makes me think this system will slide to the SE missing us and may diminish with time. You need a deepening low a little further north with more warm air to its east to get it to snow here. So, that’s why I doubt this will give us more than a few drops of rain Friday evening.

But again, the big news is one more shot of cold air with lows reaching the 20s next Sunday and Monday.

After a near freezing morning on Tuesday Feb. 3, expect a much warmer week. Highs should 58-63 and lows 39-43. That’s average for this time of year, but it will be welcome. Also, no significant rain in sight with a northwest flow aloft - but with the real cold retreating to the Northeast where it belongs. Prospects for the Mardi Gras parades Feb. 6-8 look much better.