90 Degree Heat this Weekend

The latest deluge is over and sunny skies will be the norm through next Wednesday — so the heat is on and our muddy yards will get a chance to dry. Most of us will hit 90 degrees for the first time this weekend. Why the change? It all has to do with the winds aloft. This morning’s analysis half-way up the stairway to heaven (18,000 ft) shows a trough (dashed red line) to our west with winds that spread apart over us (Green arrows). This encourages growth in the showers and storms.

For mid-say Saturday, the ECMWF forecast shows a ridge to our west with winds that come together over us. This encourages sinking motion which puts the lid on shower development. That’s why I crave upper air data almost as much as genuine NY Pizza - well, almost.

Speaking about almost….The Foreca graphic almost gets it correct. I see little chance of rain tomorrow, except perhaps for the Gulfport-Biloxi area in the early morning hours where a light shower is not out of the question. Saturday looks to have even more sun, so upper 80s seem reasonable.

Sunday will start out with a lot of sun and could hit 90. There’s a 30% chance of a brief evening shower or storm on the Northshore and Coastal MS. However, you should get most of your day in before this system arrives from the north. If you plan on grilling late, glance at the radar

Monday through Wednesday looks sunny, hot and dry. However, storms with a chance of more heavy rain arrive next Thursday and linger into Friday.

Expect a wet period here from next Wednesday June 3 to Saturday June 6, then a less certain, hot, dry period from Sunday June 7 for 3 or 4 days before more showers arrive. Long-range modeling points towards a dry last 10 days of June.

The American GFS has backed off tropical development in the Gulf and the ECMWF and GFS have reached a bit of a consensus. Deep tropical moisture from the Western Caribbean is streaming northward near the Central American coast. A building Bermuda high will channel this moisture into the Western Gulf and towards Eastern Texas where a trough of low pressure or perhaps a weak depression will form. This is the ECMWF forecast for next Thursday June 4 showing this. This is one of the reasons for the increased chance of rain here, but Houston or Lake Charles should see the greatest amount.

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach shows more showers (and wind) over the weekend compared to Louisiana and Mississippi. Might be a good weekend to hit the local pool or take the next exit past Buc-ees. Monday through Wednesday looks fine there before winds and rain pick up next Thursday. -