A Four Week Hurricane Season

Unlike Florida or the East Coast, the threat of a major hurricane strike in the New Orleans to Biloxi area ends by mid October as the westerly winds aloft push storms to our east. Since it looks like nothing will develop in the Gulf until Sept 15 at the earliest, that leaves a four week window of concern. As always, we comment on the season in our “Long Range Ramblings” section.

Today’s expected storms arrived early, from 9 PM to 4 AM, depending on where you were on the Northshore. In its wake, the dense cloud cover and occasional light rain in spots, kept temperatures mostly in the upper 70s to low 80s. It also killed off storms in the Baton Rouge area that were headed here. However, the rain cooled air from the storms didn’t make it to the Southshore, so with a bit more sun, they hit the mid 80s and are seeing the thunderstorms move through this evening. Those storms will miss the Northshore, but we could see some move in tomorrow morning.

After a tricky forecast tonight and tomorrow, expect slightly below normal temperatures with highs mainly upper 80s and lows upper 60s to near 70. See below for details.

The Foreca graphic overdoes the days with rainfall. Let’s take it day by day.

Saturday. Showers and storms are possible in the early morning hours, then again in the afternoon if we see sun by late in the morning. There will be enough clouds to keep us from hitting 90, but it will be another humid day. Atmosphere is juiced above the surface, so if storms develop an inch is not out of the question with higher amounts more likely from Mandeville-Covington-Slidell-Biloxi (and the Southshore) as opposed to further north.

Sunday: Sunny. Relatively nice for late August.

Monday: Sunny start, chance of scattered afternoon showers or a thunderstorm from Slidell east to Biloxi. Should not amount to much.

Tuesday: Scattered showers and storms. Rainfall amounts should be more modest. Clouds should lower the highs to mid 80s.

Wednesday - next Saturday, should be quite pleasant with lower humidity especially Thursday-Saturday. Slight chance of an afternoon shower on Wednesday that won’t amount to much. Mid 60s for lows are not out of the question if you believe the European models.

By the way, forecast for Clemson is still looking great. Weather will not be a factor in the LSU game.

The ECMWF model chances of a tropical storm for week four (starts Sept. 15) are shown below. Maps for week one, two, and three show no chance of development. The increased week four chances in the Southern Gulf reflect an increase in shower activity with deep tropical moisture along with more favorable upper air pattern. Note the higher chances for something in the Atlantic, which begins in Week 3, but will probably not concern us.

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach shows a wet Saturday and a much better Sunday and Monday. There will be a few windy periods, so keep an eye up for those flags.