All Quiet on the Eastern Front...

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Absolutely nothing to report on in the Tropical Atlantic, nor am I expecting anything to develop in the next week. For an explanation why and the long-range outlook see “Long-Range Ramblings.”

Closer to home, despite this afternoon’s heat, the humidity was lower as the winds turned to the north this morning about 12 hours earlier than expected. One beautiful Monday is in store courtesy of that cooler air to our north. Northshore lows will be low to mid 60s in many locations with highs staying in the upper 80s. Tuesday and Wednesday will feature a return flow from the Gulf with scattered showers and thunderstorms. I’m not expecting widespread rainfall, nor enough to water the garden.

Then, NW flow aloft and E winds at the surface will give us dry Texas weather with decent mornings and hot afternoons from Thursday through next Sunday. Keep watering and see below for details.

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The Foreca graphic looks reasonable. Remember, these are for the airport in Slidell which is representative of many suburban locations near the I-10/12 corridor. Southshore locations won’t drop below 70, but highs will be about the same. Rural locations well inland could see lows a degree or two cooler with highs a degree or two warmer.

Shower and thunderstorms chances are limited to Tuesday afternoon (30%) and Wednesday afternoon (20%). Both days will be partly sunny, otherwise sunny weather will prevail.

The satellite image of the Gulf and Atlantic shows very little cloud cover and no disturbances that are capable of development. Dry mid-level air, some African dust, and wind shear are all reasons for this quiet spell. The arrows highlight the location of an upper level trough over us which brought down the less humid air. It’s impossible for a tropical system to approach our area when the upper trough is over us or slightly to our east. because of the wind shear.

The long-range European model probabilities for tropical storms continues to warn of an area in the Southern Gulf to look out for in Week 3 starting Sept. 22. Reasons for this include more favorable upper air conditions (at least in the Southern Gulf), increased deep layer tropical moisture and some hints of a Central American gyre to provide the twist. However, the upper level trough near us has proved to be resilient. Models show that the trough will break down mid-month removing a key obstacle. However, when and if development happens remains a mystery.

Closer to home, because of the trough breaking down, deep layer tropical moisture should arrive around Sept.17 or 18 bringing back more widespread, August-like showers and thunderstorms.

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach shows really lovely beach weather with highs upper 80s and lows in the 70s with little chance of rain and abundant sunshine. Strong NE winds are not as much of a problem on these beaches.