Bad forecast = Good Weekend

One victory to celebrate: I pretty much “nailed” last night’s temperature forecast. My citrus grove low temperature in Cross Gates, Slidell was 32 with a 27 at our airport.

But….my forecast of thunderstorms this weekend is NOT going to happen. All models have a drastically different and improved forecast for this weekend over the central U.S. In fact, it should turn out to be one of the biggest 7-day busts of a big system I’ve seen this year. The conventional physics-based ECMWF and GFS saw some upper-air energy coming off Siberia and moved it in such a way as to amplify a Mississippi Valley system next weekend. The European AI didn’t buy it - so it’s a win for the new kid on the block (But he doesn’t win them all the time for I’d simply retire).

Your “take-aways” for this easy, highly confident forecast are:

1) Though it will be cold, no frosts or freeze tonight. None expected for the next two weeks. Unwrap all those plants.

2) A gradual warming trend will result in an extended period of sunny weather through at least next Wednesday with highs mostly 70s to low 80s and lows in the 50s and 60s. See below for details.

3) Forest and brush fires could be a problem in this dry weather, especially as the wind picks up next week. Water any new transplants or flowers that you want looking pretty for Thanksgiving.

4) Morning fog could be an issue from Friday to Monday morning.

Though I lowered tomorrow morning’s low, the warming trend in the Foreca graphic is obvious. Light southerly winds bringing in moisture over cooler water could result in morning fog anytime from Friday to Monday.

The next chance of showers is late Wednesday, Nov. 18, over a week away. However, models are not in agreement about the timing with some models putting showers off until late Thursday Nov. 19 or Friday.

Expect warm conditions next Thursday Nov. 19 with lows near 60 and highs in the 70s. The big uncertainty is when this front will move through. Will the showers concentrate on Thursday with the cool weather arriving for Friday and Saturday as the ECMWF indicates? Or will the showers hold off until Friday Nov 20 or Saturday Nov 21 as the American and European AI indicate? Regardless, I’m expecting a more modest cold air mass with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s for a few days after the front comes through. Much too early to speculate about rainfall amounts.

Winter will return with colder weather sometime Thanksgiving week or early December. With low pressure areas staying well north of the Gulf Coast, cold will not mean snow.