Bertha to give minor impacts

Bertha finally did get its act together, but he’s been exposed! This afternoon’s visible satellite image shows a much more compact low level swirl than yesterday centered at x (about 40 miles south of Pensacola Beach) However, the tall thunderstorms are all off to the south, exposing the eye which is surrounded by only broken low clouds and scattered showers . Given that, it’s remarkable that Pensacola and Destin are reporting gusts well into the 40 mph range.

The good news is that a storm in this state with continued wind shear will weaken. The current track takes it almost due west into lower Plaquemines Parish layer about 2 PM tomorrow. Given that, I can see sustained 25 mph winds with gusts into the 30 range for most of us living along the I-10/I-12 corridor - tack on another 5 mph for exposed Southshore locations.. That’s less that we see in many thunderstorms. The best chance of seeing gale force gusts would be right along the beach in Gulfport-Biloxi and and in the marshes of St. Bernard and Plaquemines Parish..

1-3 feet of surge is expected in Lake Pontchartrain with 2-4 feet in MS Sound. Rain will not be a problem — maybe a half inch unless you are 20 miles south of New Orleans where several inches could fall.

About the only preparation I can see doing is taking in your lawn furniture if you live in an exposed (there’s that word again) coastal location such as near Eden Isles or the beachfront along US 90 on the MS Gulf Coast.

The Foreca graphic shows scattered showers coming in with the system during the afternoon hours (mid-morning along the MS Gulf Coast). Showers could linger through Thursday. If we get more cloud cover late Wed. or Thursday, highs could be held down into the 80s - with a breeze that would be a real treat. Don’t take their wind speed forecast too literally — the anemometer at Slidell airport is stuck in a pine forest (Great job guys in siting it), so this impacts the statistical forecast. Expect more than 16 mph. Note the measly rain amount - maybe 0.2” at most.

After a few scattered showers or storms on Friday, the spigot turns off and the heat is on as another upper level ridge builds in. 97-98 degree temperatures seem likely early next week. So, if Bertha isn’t bountiful, water your plants.

As shown above, the next chance of a shower after Friday could be next Wed. July 29. Another chance could be that Friday. Expect a wet period from typical summer storms July 29 through the first few days of August. Then, back to the heat.

Long-range European modeling shifts the chances of tropical development from the Gulf back into the Atlantic off the Carolinas and north of Bermuda for the first half of August. That’s good news for us and is more in line with my expectations.

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach shows the winds and light rain from Bertha today and tomorrow. Weather will settle back down by this weekend as the sun breaks through on Thursday and temperatures climb back towards 90. Pay attention to the beach flags as the surf and rip currents will take a few days to die down from this afternoon’s big Bertha blow.