Big Weather News is Elsewhere

With Major Hurricane Melissa battering Jamaica and a northeaster that gave hurricane force gusts and storm surge to the Outer Banks, who cares about our pending cold front? I do! Just like a good kicker ‘flips the field” in football with a huge punt, tomorrow’s big change in temperature will make you feel like you flipped the calendar. Everything is still on schedule here and some excellent,cool, dry weather will predominate the first two weeks of November. You can safely say goodbye to the mid 80s, humid, early fall weather and welcome in days featuring high temperatures largely in the 60s and 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. Details follow…..and….

On Thursday, I’ll give you what my long-range guru says about how winter will shape up across the U.S.

I’ll quibble with some of the details of the Foreca temperature (the numbers reflect my quibbling), but the general idea is this: After a big drop in temperature tomorrow, temperatures will recover only slightly during the next week.

The front should roar through between midnight and 3 AM tonight with a brief shower giving us maybe a tenth of an inch. Winds will pick up from the north and temperatures will drop to near 50. You’ll want a light jacket or sweater. Wednesday will be a blustery affair that will make you think you’re up north: Highs will stop in the low to mid 60s, winds will gust to 30 mph over land, closer to 40 over the bridges (probably restrictions for certain high profile vehicles on the Causeway?) and a few clouds will bubble up and blow by during the afternoon.

Thursday morning will be a few degrees colder with the low and winds will be just a bit lighter in the morning. Winds will die off by night and temperatures will plummet. Most Northshore locations will get into the low 40s Friday morning, but could range from 39 in a few cold pockets well inland to the mid 40s in some of the more densely populated cities.

Halloween will be a treat (Had to say that) with highs almost 70, and temperatures about 60 by 6 PM falling towards 50 by 9 PM. No wind.

Next system will arrive with light rain late Saturday night and Sunday morning. European modeling is keeping the bulk of this system to our south, so I’m not expecting much from this except a mostly cloudy Sunday. Monday and Tuesday look dry, but it[‘s hard to pin down how much cloud cover we’ll see, so my temperatures could be a bit off here.

After Sunday morning….Expect next week to be rain-free through Friday with highs warming to the upper 70s to near 80 by Friday Nov. 7. Lows will be in the 50s. Next chance of rain Saturday Nov. 8 with another cold front, but think amounts will be light. Temperatures will drop to below normal again for a few days with highs upper 60s to low 70s, lows in the 40s. Then, a warm up for a few more days before another cold front comes through around Nov. 13. You get the picture: Up and down, but fairly dry with no huge changes.

In the tropics, Major Hurricane Melissa may be one for the record books with its very low pressure and 160 kt winds. TV reports may not capture the worst of the damage until a day or two from now since many crews are located in Kingston, which did not experience the eyewall. Forecasts have been excellent and the track to Cuba, Central and Southern Bahamas, and just west of Bermuda looks good.

Melissa and the Northeaster associated with the dip in the jet form what I call a climax event bringing the curtain down on summer and the hurricane season. Both are transferring enormous amounts of energy pole-ward . On to winter; read Thursday’s post for my take on it.