Boring Weather = Writer's Block?

Not really! True, there’s not a lot to talk about in the short term. But, there are things we can speculate about in the long-range, where all of my tropical information will reside.

Northwest flow aloft is keeping the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere dry which kills off any chances of rain. A bit of that lower humidity is reaching the surface and has given us several “feel good” days. Unfortunately, we’ve run out of cool air north of us, so we will be warming up towards the mid 90s by mid week. But….with a bit lower humidity,”feel-like” temperatures will add only 5 degrees to the true temperature.

By weekend, the northwest flow will turn more westerly and a weak return flow from the Gulf will set in. There will be a few more clouds, a few showers, and high temps. will get back to normal (near 90).

The Foreca graphic looks good. Tomorrow morning’s mid- to upper-60s will feel nice in rural Northshore areas, but notice the increased warmth and humidity from Wednesday through Saturday. As usual, there will be some subtle differences within the Northshore. Areas from Covington-Picayune-Saucier (and north) will run a degree or two warmer in the afternoon while areas close to the Lake and Sound will have a hard time getting below 70. With temps. hitting the 90s, please water newly planted stuff, potted plants, and perhaps even your lawn.

Some showers might just creep into Northern Tangipahoa and Washington Parishes along with Pearl River County Saturday evening before dying. Amounts should be light. Sunday will feature a decent 30% chance of showers or a thunderstorm in the afternoon. Models are pointing to a rain-free Monday, but I can’t figure out why. Shower and storm chances ramp up significantly for next Tuesday and Wednesday - which will give us our best chances of rain in over a week.

Before getting into the tropical, next Tuesday-Thursday will be reasonably wet. After that, we could go another week without rain. As we approach mid-September, the daily deluge season drys up. Unless, we get something tropical or a rare front, your daily afternoon showers become history until next June.

In the tropics, a disorganized cluster of storms off Africa mark an area that models are zeroing in on for gradual development. You and I would probably never guess there is much to look at given this IR satellite image.

Exactly where a depression forms in the next two or three days is crucial for future tracking. The models and the hurricane center say wherever it forms, it will lumber across the ocean at African Queen speed and end up somewhere near the northern Leeward Islands in 5-6 days. NHC is giving this a 70% chance of development into Gabrielle with most of the strengthening happening as it nears the islands. After that, ???, though I doubt possible Gabrielle will make it to the Gulf despite its French name.

The chances of tropical storm formation during week three from ECMWF shows three separate features. First, is the northern streak heading from the Bahamas and Bermuda out to sea representing possible Gabrielle.and its uncertain location. The second is one coming behind it from Africa through the Main Development Region. Third, is one in the Bay of Campeche (SW Gulf) which could happen about Sept. 17 and 18. That’s the one we need to watch since there’s some physical reasons for it — a left over front and favorable upper air thanks to that Madden-Julian wave.

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach shows a really nice stretch of weather through Monday. I agree and wish I could drop everything and head over there.