Coldest Night since November

Tonight will be the coldest night since mid-November with 26 a common low temperature across most of the Northshore. It will be followed by another night about 4-5 degrees warmer. Then, a extended period of return flow from the Gulf will bring in somewhat warmer weather, more moisture and cloudiness from Wednesday through Friday. This NWS forecast map for Friday morning shows a warm front to our southwest which will give us a chance of showers on Friday.

On Saturday morning (shown below), the low that was over the Texas Panhandle will move in our direction. I expect it to pass just to our north dragging the warm front to our north. This should give us a few breaks from the cloudiness and continued warmth before the cold front arrives with more showers and storms for Saturday night and Sunday morning. Then, temperatures will fall again with lows near freezing by Monday Jan. 26.

The Foreca graphic shows the big picture well, but I think Saturday’s high will be much warmer (67 instead of 59) and Sunday’s rain should be over by about 8 AM. Here’s a few more points.

First, everyone on the Northshore should see a freeze tonight, though some of us in more developed suburbia might stop at 28. A few cold pockets inland could briefly dip below 25. Even the Southshore might see freezing temperatures away from the Lake.

Tack on 4-6 degrees for Tuesday morning which should see more city vs. country temperature differences.

Clouds move in late Tuesday or Wednesday limiting the afternoon warm-up. A few light showers are possible Wednesday due to an upper air disturbance. Then, showers are more likely Friday afternoon and evening ahead of the warm front. If I’m right and that warm front punches through, we could pop up to near 70 under partly cloudy skies on Saturday.

The cold front pushing through Saturday night could give us some meaningful rainfall — but it’s too early to say how much. Then, it’s rinse and repeat as another Canadian High pushes in and temperatures fall.

The cold spell starting on Monday Jan. 26 could be an extended one perhaps featuring an even colder second dose coming 4-5 days later. A double whammy! As I said, winter is not over yet. Also, the entire last week of January should be a dry one without any precipitation, Here’s some numbers to ponder over, mostly based on the European model...

Tuesday Jan 27 Low 30 High 54

Wednesday Jan28 Low 40 High 57

Thursday Jan 29 Low 28 High 46

Friday Jan. 30 Low 26 High 42

The first two weeks of February should feature up-and-down temperatures cycles, but perhaps not as pronounced. Then, the back of winter looks to be broken by mid-February, at least according to my long-range guru. At that time, I’ll be more than ready to put away my winter jacket.