Cool Weekend, Rainy Monday ?

An upper air wave that will be passing us tomorrow morning is a bit stronger than expected. So even though the lower atmosphere is dry, some sprinkles might make it through. Amounts would be only a few hundredths in a few locations, so this might not even rate as a dust settler in Texas.

Then, a low pressure area heading through the Midwest will end up in Pennsylvania by Thursday morning pushing two cold fronts our way. (see forecast map below). You’ll begin to feel it by Thursday evening when the reinforcing front arrives. Winds will pick up and the temperatures fall into the 40s for Friday morning. This will usher in a lovely, “really feels like October up North” weekend with lows near 40 and highs in the low to mid 60s. Now if we could only get the leaves to change color all at one time…

The threat of frost is not as great as I thought a few days ago. The core of the high pressure area will stay far enough north that we won’t get into quite as cold air as I thought. Even still, there could be some isolated frost in cold pockets near farm ponds in areas well north of I-10 - say near Franklinton and Poplarville.

But then comes a bit of a surprise. An upper air wave over the Pacific will end up creating a surface low in the Gulf by early Monday. This is the ECMWF forecast for Monday morning showing that low south of Lake Charles. Showers and storms extend from Lafayette into the Gulf. Since this system will sink a bit to the southeast as it crosses the Gulf, the Northshore and perhaps New Orleans will skip out on the storms and just get plain old rain. Note: Not all models give us rain from this — some move the system too fast and too far south to give us anything except clouds. I’m thinking the ECMWF along with their AI model will be correct in their location and rainfall.

The Foreca graphic highlights the cooler weekend and Monday’s rain. Starting with tomorrow (Wednesday), skies will start off cloudy with that chance of a few sprinkles. Any rainfall should be over by 10 AM in Louisiana and noon on the Mississippi Gulf Coast. Skies should clear an hour or two later and temperatures rebound into the mid 70s since the first cold front wont’t make it through until daybreak on Thursday. Thursday morning and mid-day won’t feel much different, but temperatures will drop more rapidly in the late afternoon.

Though we’ve seen upper 30s in a few locations and low 40s just a few days ago, this weekend will be a bit different because afternoon highs won’t make it out of the 60s under bright sun. Mid-November sun is just not that strong.

Clouds should hold off until Sunday evening in advance of the next system; the wind will pick up from the east with gusts into the 20-25 mph range but rain will hold off until Monday morning. If the ECMWF is correct, we could get an inch out of this with lesser amounts inland.

Thursday Nov. 19 through Sunday Nov. 22 and 20 should feature a mix of sun and clouds with highs in the low-mid 70s and lows in the low to mid 50s. Another chance ofshowers and storms should arrive for that Monday or Tuesday Nov 23 or 24 followed by clearing for Wednesday. We’ll peer ahead to Thanksiving in Thursday’s forecast.

Foreca graphic for Louis Armstrong shows a similar pattern.