Cooler for Thanksgiving

A weak cold front will bring a chance of some light showers tomorrow, less than I had hoped for earlier, and it will give us cooler mornings for Sunday and Monday. Then, the wind turns around to the south, for a few more warm and humid days before a more powerful front comes through late Tuesday or early Wednesday. Thanksgiving looks partly sunny and cool with lows in the low-mid 40s and highs in the low-mid 60s. Perfect for grilling or frying that bird plus backyard games with the family.

Tuesday looks like our best chance for showers and thunderstorms ahead of that front. Temperatures will be coldest Black Friday and that Saturday, but not cold enough for a frost.

First, kudos to the local National Weather Service office for warning people of the dense fog we’ve had the last few days. With clouds moving in after midnight, the NWS doubts we’ll see any tonight, but thinks patchy fog is again possible Saturday morning.

Let’s walk you through the Foreca graphic day by day. For tomorrow, more clouds than sun, especially in the morning hours. There’s a chance for some piddly light rain in the early morning, but scattered showers will develop mid-day and gradually move inland and eastward ending by evening. Rain chances are about 40% for most of us with only a few hundredths or a tenth of an inch likely. Areas with a slightly better chance (60%?) include Bogalusa, Pearl River County, and perhaps the Gulfport-Biloxi area by late afternoon. Southshore rain chances — even less.

Saturday morning might see some drizzle of light morning showers as the fog and low clouds lift. Again, not much here. Then, another sunny and warm one with highs near 80. Then, the graphic clearly shows the cooler morning temperatures from Sunday into Monday. That means lower overall humidity even though the high temperatures won’t be much cooler — upper 70s.

Monday afternoon and Tuesday feature a return of warm and humidity as a noticeable light breeze comes in from the Gulf. Tuesday will be cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. They should end with the front coming through Wednesday morning.

Then, the nice, cooler weather rolls in for Wednesday, and especially Thanksgiving - Saturday. Skies will be slow to clear with a mostly cloudy Wednesday and a partly cloudy Thanksgiving. Note that not all forecasters agree with this. The American modeling hangs up the front on the Gulf coast giving us cloudy, showery weather through Thanksgiving, and a slight cool down for Friday. I disagree because I see enough energy in the Northern jet to kick the cold front through us. And, oh, tack on about 5 degrees for Southshore lows during this period.

The warm up should begin by Sunday Nov. 30 with lows in the 50s and highs in the 70s. Delightful. Monday Dec. 1 should be warm and more humid with showers possible. Tuesday Dec. 2- Wednesday Dec. 3 looks wet with a slow moving moving cold front in our area.

Experts are convinced that Arctic air will spill southward by mid December due to a stratospheric warming event near the North Pole. Some of that air will undoubtedly head into the MidWest, but some will head into Russia, which could possibly get the worst of it. Too early to say what will happen here.