Cooler Morning, then back to the Heat

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We did get those clouds and a cooler day with highs in the 80s. However, most of the rain fell over Lakes Pontchartrain, Borgne, or over Mississippi Sound. True, there were some rainfall winners such as near the Lakefront on the Southshore, New Orleans East, Eden Isles/Oak Harbor, Bay St. Louis and Biloxi, but almost everyone else had meager amounts. If you weren’t a winner, water because rainfall chances are slim for most of this week.

This short-range forecast for tomorrow morning shows us why. An unusually deep upper air trough (Those big “V”’s over the Eastern US shown in solid colors) has brought that non-cold, cold front through our area switching our winds around to light northerly (blue arrow). That’s bringing in slightly less humid air and will result in an almost pleasant (OK - ‘getting more reasonable’) morning temperatures in the low 70s. But since it’s early August and there’s not enough moisture above the surface to support any rainfall-producing cumulus, the heat will be on by afternoon.

Hot, dry conditions will persist through early Thursday, but the map will change by early Friday. After the trough lifts off to our north, the Bermuda High will build in from the East, more so at the surface than aloft (notice the blue surface H over Western NC while the darker red color is mostly off the East Coast). That’s important, because the winds will turn around to the SE and bring in moisture, but the upper air will be cool enough to promote the cumulus to grow. The means scattered showers and storms.

The Foreca graphic overdoes the days with rainfall. Thursday looks like the next time one or two of us could see a shower, and they will be spotty at best, mostly on the Westbank and perhaps an inland Northshore location or two. Friday’s better shower and thunderstorm chances will be in the afternoon, perhaps 30-40%. Saturday’s and Sunday’s chances look a bit better still. Again, just typical summer thundershowers with little organization.

If you are an early AM walker, you will notice the less stifling feel to the air for a few hours on Monday and Tuesday. However, those low 70s will rise by Wednesday as the air gets more humid. Afternoon highs should peak in the mid 90s from Tuesday-Thursday.

Expect the chance of showers and storms to last through Tuesday August 11 before the Bermuda High builds in aloft to cut off the shower chances. There’s nothing go on in the Tropical Atlantic. There will be a lot of showers and thunderstorms in the Bahamas and near the Florida Peninsula next weekend associated with a tropical (easterly) wave that will bear watching. Yet, despite what some sensational folks post on YouTube, models are not showing any consistent, credible threat of tropical development in the foreseeable future (10 days).

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach shows the same story — too much rainfall for the next few days. Those beach flags should be coming down in the next day as the winds, surf, and rip current threat subside. Except maybe for an isolated shower threat on Thursday and a better one on Friday, otherwise this looks like a great week. Next weekend, though, looks wet.