Cooler temps on Friday & weekend

Hallelujah. Our first legitimate cool front of the fall will bring noticeably cooler temperatures with much less humidity on Friday and the weekend. The reason: A big dip in the jet stream will move through the Deep South causing a small low to move to our north, dragging a cold front through anytime from Thursday evening to early Friday morning. Ahead of the front will be a good chance of showers and storms anytime from Wednesday evening through Thursday. This map shows the Thursday evening German ICON model forecast of the low (Red L in Alabama), the dip in the jet (colored contours) and my dashed blue line show where the front should be with with arrows showing NW winds behind it.

In the tropics, late September and October will be active. The good news is that most of the action should remain in the Atlantic and much of it out to sea. There’s no threat to us here in the next 10 days and I’m beginning to wonder if the season will pass without any real threat of a significant storm to Louisiana and Mississippi. See Long-Range Ramblings for more details.

The Foreca graphic looks good. A few scattered showers Monday evening, Tuesday looks dry with the first chance of showers and storms Wednesday evening. Since the system is moving in from the NW, I would expect that chances in Hammond would be better than Slidell (plus arrive a few hours earlier) with almost no chance in Gulfport until well past dark. Notice that the rain chances continue overnight. It’s possible we could see another round of showers Thursday afternoon with the front.

Hot weather will continue until Wednesday since Wednesday will be mostly sunny until the showers arrive. Indeed, Wednesday will feel as humid as August. Then, with clouds and showers around on Thursday, highs could stay in the mid 80s. After the front clears, expect lows low-mid 60s on the Northshore, highs mid 80s on the weekend. On the Southshore, expect lows near 70, highs mid 80s with a pleasant breeze near the lake.

In the tropics, Gabrielle has just become a hurricane and could reach major hurricane status in a day or two as it skirts Bermuda as it makes an abrupt turn to the east. Otherwise, it’s not a threat to anything but shipping.

Behind it is another likely development that the European suite of models latches onto (Orange area) NHC is giving this a 70% chance of development from Wednesday to Friday. It would come a little farther west than Gabrielle but follow a similar path. Finally, there’s a wave ahead of this (yellow area), that the American GFS favors, but NHC only give a 20% chance to. If this develops, it could come close to the US East Coast.

Finally, both the American and European models are showing deep tropical moisture and some spin moving into the Yucatan and eventually the Bay of Campeche around Oct. 1. The ECMWF probability of seeing a tropical storm in this area during week three shows the bulls eye over the SW Gulf.. This is the area we would have to watch, but most of the time any developments there go into Mexico or South Texas because westerly winds aloft protect us. Week Four probabilities do not increase in the Northern Gulf. So, it’s looking promising that we will avoid anything of consequence this hurricane season. But let’s keep watching for another week or two just in case….

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach shows a later arrival of the showers and storms than in Louisiana and Mississippi - a Thursday and early Friday event. Rain amounts will be greater, but starting late Friday: A great weekend with lows in low 70s. Nice camping weather.

Note also; Unlike Louisiana and Mississippi, this area has had some notable October hurricanes, such as Hurricane Opal. I’m not saying we’re going to see anything this year, but the chances of a significant storm don’t end here until very late October..