Coolest week so far, warmer weekend; Colder Halloween?

Good news: The air behind the front is a bit cooler than I thought. That means several mornings this week with lows near 50 for many of us on the Northshore with several days where the high could stay below 80. Another reason for the extended nice weather, a reinforcing shot of cooler air moving in Tuesday evening. Temperatures will warm on Friday and next weekend should feature highs in the mid 80s with lows low-mid 60s. Details follow in the next session.

The best news might be in the long-range — in fact two doses of it, so if you want real fall weather or tropical news, read on.

The Foreca graphic looks great since almost all of our weather in the next few weeks will come from large systems. Models are at their best in these situations.

Tomorrow morning will start out near 50, but the highs will struggle to reach 80 (call it 78) under brilliant sunshine. Sorry, those of you that live on the Southshore. Lows will only reach the low- to mid-60s, but with a breeze, courtesy of a warm Lake Ponchartrain.

Tuesday will warm to the mid 80s after a slightly warmer start, but still with low humidity, before the next shot of cool air arrives that evening.

Wednesday - Friday will be delightful with Thursday morning the coolest of the season. Many rural areas on the Northshore will see upper 40s and we may not see 80 for several days

Saturday - Monday will be noticeably warmer (Highs 84-86) and a bit more humid with partly cloudy skies and a slight chance of light showers beginning Saturday afternoon and extending into Sunday.

The good news for us is that all models are showing a strong cold front moving through late on Tuesday Oct. 28 or early Wed. Oct. 29. This should give us a good chance of showers and thunderstorms, but more important will drop temperatures considerably — into the “sweaters and jackets” range. Highs could be a windy, upper 60s and lows in the mid 40s for Halloween and the days surrounding it.

The reason for this is a big dip in the jet stream causing a slow moving, upper air low over or near Wisconsin on Oct. 29. The ECMWF model shows this feature in the colored contours. This will kick a front through here swinging the winds around to the north as shown by the arrow.

The other good news is in the tropics. Though the first, and probably only, development of the season seems likely in the Caribbean, models show a future tropical storm or hurricane moving well east of Florida and the East Coast. The timing of when this develops depends on whether this will cut across the Dominican Republic, Haiti, or Cuba anytime from Friday - Monday. This could be bad news for these countries.