Drought ending; light freeze Thursday

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It’s going to be a “something for everyone week”, with active, changeable weather. For example, those of us who garden will welcome showers and thunderstorms on Monday evening and Thursday into early Friday. Those of who like sunny cool weather will enjoy Tuesday, Wednesday, and next Sunday. Finally, those of us who enjoy frosty beauty will see that on Wednesday morning.

I’m confident that our Fall drought will be over after this week. The graphic below shows the European (ECMWF) model forecast of total rainfall during this week. Widespread amounts of 3-4” cover our entire area with a few places receiving over 6”. Because winter precipitation is caused by large scale systems, models do a better job in forecasting these and you’re much less likely to see one parish get dumped on while the next one is dry as a bone. The rain will be caused by several fronts that will stall along the Gulf Coast.

A few other themes for the weather this week. As we slide into winter, there will be more cloudy, cool days - something we haven’t seen in a long time. Also, we may not reach 70 again for almost two weeks.

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The Foreca graphic looks good, but at first glance it could deceive you into thinking that half of Tuesday will be rainy. Not so, as I expect the showers and storms will be over by midnight or shortly after midnight. Foreca’s bar graphs place anything after midnight on the 6 AM bar. Tackling this day by day….

Tonight’s showers have died out before evening getting into Slidell, New Orleans or Gulfport. Cloudy shies should prevail through Monday with scattered showers or light rain developing in the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will be most likely from 6 PM - Midnight on Monday and I think the Foreca graphic under-estimates the totals. A half-inch seems likely in many places.

Skies should clear rapidly for Tuesday and Wednesday giving us fair and cooler weather. A light freeze seems likely in many Northshore locations (30-32 deg.) except for the more densely populated areas of suburbia which should reach the 34-37 deg. range. All should see frost. Southshore lows near 40.

The big rain-maker arrives in the wee hours of Thursday morning, first starting out as rain, then having embedded showers and thunderstorms maybe as soon as morning rush. Though the first wave of precipitation may end Thursday afternoon, another wave will break out Thursday night into Friday morning as the front stalls. Several inches of rain seem likely. The challenge is forecasting when this will all clear since there’s not a lot forcing the front to move.

I like the way Foreca is handling this, with clouds sticking around until Saturday morning and the chance of some drippy light rain lingering into Friday night. Fingers crossed that most of Saturday will be salvageable. Sunday looks nice.

Next Monday Dec. 8 will feature increasing clouds with a chance of rain and temperatures in the 50s before another cold air outbreak.

Tuesday and Wednesday Dec. 9 and 10 should be fair and cold. Wednesday morning’s low will be in the 28-35 degree range on the Northshore.

Thursday Dec. 11 - Sunday Dec. 14 should feature warmer temperatures with highs reaching the low to mid 70s and lows 48-55.

Several long-range gurus are still expecting a big arctic invasion of freezing weather in the Eastern US as we get into late December or perhaps early January. They are using ominous sounding analogies like comparing this winter with 1983 and 1989, two years which featured brutal, single digit freezes here in Louisiana and South Mississippi. It’s possible that the worst of this freeze could miss us, so I’m not setting this forecast in stone just yet. But, I’m keeping my eyes out and will let you know when I see enough evidence to warrant attention.