Dry Spell should end early next week

A few showers and storms have cropped up this afternoon from Folsom to Bogalusa, but the storms should die out as the sun sets and they move in the direction of Hammond. Otherwise, I’m not expecting any showers through Sunday. Then an upper level trough and return flow of moisture from the Gulf should set us up for a decent chance of showers and storms from late Monday through Wednesday or Thursday of next week.

In the tropics, Gabrielle should develop but not bother anyone except possibly Bermuda. Otherwise, loads of potential for something in the Southern Gulf or Western Caribbean in another ten days, but nothing definitive. See “Long Range Ramblings” for more info.

The Foreca graphic under estimates the highs (forgive me, I should have added them), but has the right idea with the rainfall. Highs 90-92 with the warmest day looking to be Saturday. Again, add 2-3 degrees for inland locations. Northshore lows upper 60s warming to low 70s as humidity increases beginning Monday.

Monday’s showers and storms will be moving in from the west, so Tangipahoa and Western St. Tammany have the greater chance of seeing them in the afternoon. Models keeps the storms rolling eastward bring them to the Slidell-Biloxi area and Southshore during the evening. Tuesday and Wednesday feature a good chance of them everywhere. The system will probably move offshore enough by sometime on Thursday the 25th to taper down rain chances. Tomorrow morning’s chance is legitimate with that “cool front” (more like wind shift line). .

NHC gives a 90% chance of Gabrielle forming in the Main Development Region north of Brazil (the red X) in the next day or two. Again, models are taking this north of Puerto Rico, gradually NW and then out to sea. Interestingly, climatology for a storm forming in this location at this time of year agrees — none of them in the last 125 years have hit the U.S. Behind Gabrielle, NHC notes another system that has a low chance of developing (the yellow area)

An IR satellite images shows an increase in showers and storms in the Southern Gulf and Western Caribbean, but nothing is organized. Models are not showing anything developing there in the next week. However, a few of them show development into depressions and tropical storms towards the end of next week. There’s no consistency across the models or from run-to-run of the same model. This tells me the potential is there with warm waters, and lack of shear, but development is waiting on some significant forcing from rotation or low level convergence. Who knows if and when this materializes?

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach shows almost the same pattern. Highs are a bit cooler, with mid- to upper-80s and the precipitation holds off until next Tuesday. Even still, a nice week for the beach.