Dry until Tuesday, then turning wet

Our slightly less humid spell will barely last two days. But, after a few showers tomorrow morning with the “cool front”, we should stay dry through Monday afternoon or Tuesday, depending on where you live. In short, it will be a nice partly sunny and seasonably warm Memorial Day weekend making for nice pool or beach weather.

All models are pointing towards showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday and Wednesday of next week followed by a few day break in the showers.

The Foreca graphic overdoes the days with rainfall. Tomorrow morning’s chance is legitimate with that “cool front” (more like wind shift line). Models are painting two broken lines. The first one coming through anywhere from 4 to 7 AM, then a second one 3-4 hours later. Some places won’t see a drop, a few others might see a quarter of an inch at most.

Thursday’s shower chances are mostly offshore and somehow the model’s math has smoothed them onto land. Note the highs are knocked down into the upper 80s and the lows closer to 70 than 75 with a bit lower humidity Thursday and Friday.

Late Friday the wind will shift to the south and the humidity will increase bumping up the low temperatures for the weekend. Otherwise, partly sunny skies should rule with highs in the upper 80s.

Monday’s shower chances should be of the scattered afternoon variety and will occur mainly in inland locations like Hammond, Folsom, and Bogalusa.

A more widespread chance of showers and thunderstorms will happen next Tuesday afternoon & anytime Wednesday. Several shower periods are possible here. and, after a few weeks of dry weather, any rain will be welcome. Too early to say how much rain we will have, but I think it will be enough to be beneficial.

Expect 2-3 dry days at the end of next week, say from the 29th to the 31st with sunny skies and highs mid-upper 80s. Then, a significant front will make its way in our direction during the first few days of June marking another wet spell. After that pushes through, we could dry out for a week with seasonably warm mid-upper 80s before we might have to worry about tropical trouble.

The long-range European model continues to show above normal deep tropical moisture in the Western Caribbean during the second week of June and a stronger than normal Central American gyre. The first tropical development will probably happen during the first week of June in the Eastern Pacific, but there could well be something in the Caribbean that makes its way to the NW into the Gulf.

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach shows a really nice Memorial Day weekend with highs low 80s, and only a slim shower chance Monday afternoon. South wind ahead of this next system on Monday may bring in some rough surf, but shouldn’t be a problem until then.