Dry & Warm until Wednesday, then...

Good news: The U.S. will not be effected by any of the three tropical system currently visible in satellite imagery. Three? Yes, there’s powerful Humberto, with that classic hurricane look on the right, sheared Tropical Storm Imelda in the Bahamas that will become a hurricane tomorrow and the turn east when it gets even with Northern Florida, and an unnamed swirl in the middle of the Gulf. No worries: The swirl is just composed of low level clouds with no showers and is heading towards the southwest away from us (see red arrow) There will simply be too much shear over the Northern Gulf to support a storm near here this week - though this could become a depression in the Bay of Campeche.

Bad news: Though I do see a cool down in high temperatures later this week, the air will be humid originating from the Atlantic. There’s no real Canadian cold front in sight. Because of this, along with lower than normal pressures forecast for the Southern Gulf, South Florida, and NW Caribbean for the next few weeks, I can’t call an end to our hurricane season.

The Foreca graphic looks good, with the possible exception of all that rain that it showing on Monday Oct. 6. The next three days will feature conditions similar to today - pleasant early mornings with mid-upper 60s on the Northshore (today was cooler with 62 at Slidell’s airport) and highs generally 90-92. Then, something interesting happens. Imelda cranks up to be a strong Cat. 2, maybe Cat. 3 and pushes a lot of Atlantic air in our direction.

This is the German ICON model’s forecast for Thursday morning showing a westward moving trough, marked by a red dashed line, showing the boundary of that moist Atlantic air with the existing air over the Gulf. A few clouds and showers exist behind the trough in the Atlantic air (green hatches). The result will be a Thursday-Sunday period featuring cooler high temperatures — mid 80s, more humidity, higher low temperatures, and a slight chance of showers.

Shower chances after Thursday will vary from north to south — almost none in inland areas, 20% along the I-10/12 corridor, and 30% on the Southshore, especially St. Bernard and downriver. I think the Foreca graphic shower depiction for Wednesday should be moved to Thursday and Friday.

The weather after next Monday is uncertain. The trough mention above will become stationary west-to-east 150 miles off our coast extending eastward to Central Florida. Some models show the trough surging northward in our area giving a wet Monday Oct. 6 ( and Tuesday). Others, bring that moisture surge into the Jacksonville-Savannah area and reduce any rain chances here.

In the tropics, like Vegas,, whatever develops in Campeche later this week should stay in Campeche. My take is that the rest of the tropics will have a week or ten day lull, but the Western Caribbean will be the area to watch in about two weeks.

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach shows a similar drop in high temperatures from near 90 into the low to mid 80s, lows in low 70s. Nice camping weather. Strong NE winds won’t be too much of a problem until they swing around to E and kick up the surf late next weekend..