Early Season "Muggies"

Muggy, partly sunny weather makes it feel more like May than April. Today’s showers were more scattered than yesterday and the totals were lower, with the exception of one storm in Northern Hancock County that dumped a few inches in a small area. Those scattered showers will continue for the next few days (but not everyone will have the same chance). Then, the showers will give way to sunny, “almost hot, almost summer” weather that will linger until next Wednesday or Thursday when another front arrives. In the long-range, I’ll look ahead into May and discuss the issue of the spillway which might close.

Here’s your takeaways:

1) Tomorrow will start out with more sun than clouds, but become partly cloudy as showers start to form around noon. Showers and a few thunderstorms will peak by mid- to late-afternoon with 40% of the area getting some rainfall. Because the storms will be slow movers, there could be a few small areas that receive two inches, though the majority of us will stay with a tenth of an inch. Showers will die off at sunset.

2) Thursday’s showers are more likely in inland areas from Hammond to Covington to Bush and northward in the afternoon Those areas will have the same 40% coverage, but the amounts will be lower than Wednesday. Slim shower chances elsewhere except for coastal Harrison and Hancock counties which should stay dry.

2) Friday through early Wednesday will be sunny and “almost hot” with highs a few degrees warmer: Upper 80s. Humidity levels high, but not at mid-summer levels. If you did not get an inch of rain this week - time to water the grass.

3) Next front arrives next Wednesday or Thursday with another chance of showers.

4) Foreca high temperatures are 2-3 degrees too low because it is largely based on the European model. The “Euro”, for all it’s strengths, moderates the high temperatures for some unknown reason.

After the front next Wednesday or Thursday, a minor break in the humidity seems possible. High temperatures could be low to mid 80s with lows closer to 60 for a few days (fingers crossed).

Afterward, say from May 4-10, expecting a rain-less “almost hot” period. Time to inspect hoses and sprinklers. In fact, my bet for May is above normal temperatures and below normal rain.

All that dry weather bodes well for those of us who would like to see the Bonnet Carre Spillway stay closed. An open spillway dumps Mississippi River water into Lake Ponchartrain, making it cold and muddy, driving fish away for most of the summer. It also introduces toxins into Lake, but is needed as a relief valve for levees in Jefferson, Orleans and St. Bernard Parishes if river levels get too high. The fact that they tested opening it and then closed it shut tells me that the levels are marginally high and they hope to avoid doing it.

Ever delete my forecast by mistake? (I can’t blame you - there’s a few every month that I would trash). Or, maybe you just get so much email that mine is lost in the stew. Now, you can find them at my website, www.wounduponweather.com.

You will need to create a password, but make it simple since this is not Fort Knox. Then, as long as you access the website from the same PC, Mac, IPhone, or Droid, you shouldn’t need to enter it again (told you it wasn’t Fort Knox). Then, scroll down until you see the Latest Posts and click the one on the left. Voila - my latest forecast.

Why “wonky”? It’s by far the ugliest web site I’ve ever created but when it’s free….

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach. With morning low clouds, afternoon sun, temperatures approaching 80, no rain in sight, it’s early season beach weather.