Easter Morning still looking wet

Small-scale showers and thunderstorm systems make forecasting a challenge for the next few days. Look at this afternoon’s satellite image to see why. A broken 30-mile-wide area of showers and storms extend from west of Hattiesburg south through Slidell to the Gulf (arrows point to the western edge of this system)— but only about half of the folks in the area received any rainfall.

Tomorrow that area is expected to start day 30-40 miles to the east in Mississippi and slowly move its way west back into Eastern St. Tammany Parish and New Orleans by the afternoon. Rain chances in those areas maybe 60%. Rain chances in Western St. Tammany, Tangipahoa, and the River Parishes would be lower, say 40%.

Thursday, the area should be centered on St. Tammany and the New Orleans metro giving those areas a better chance (50%), but a decreasing chance in the Gulfport-Biloxi area. Friday, the area should be closer to Baton Rouge, giving everyone from Hammond eastward a lower chance of showers (30%) and slightly warmer temperatures. Rainfall amounts from all of this will be light - a few tenths of an inch as a typical amount.

Saturday will see more of those scattered showers and storms then the main actor arrives for Sunday morning. A cold front arrives in the pre-dawn hours with heavier showers and storms. The only trouble is it will move through slowly, so showers and storms should linger through the morning, maybe even into the afternoon. The ECMWF rainfall forecast from 7 AM to 1 PM substantiates this. So cancel the bunnies and bring in the ducks. With a cool northeast wind and cloudy skies, it might just feel a bit like Oregon.

Foreca’s temperatures appear a bit too low, so use my printed ones for highs and lows. Also, they show Sunday’s heaviest rain in the afternoon hours, but I think it will be in the morning. Otherwise, this looks good. Keep in mind that there will be significant local differences in rainfall. I mention most of these earlier, but on Sunday, Tangipahoa, NW St. Tammany, and Washington Parishes could break out of the rain by mid-morning. New Orleans might see showers on-and-off all day. It will be that close a call…..

The real nice feel weather starts on Monday, but even then, we’ll be in and out of the clouds.

The long-range forecast skill starts to decrease this time of year as small scale systems predominate. Even still, I think the 5-day period starting Thursday April 9 will feature highs in the 75-82 range with lows starting out in the 50s climbing into the mid 60s. Rain chances look low. As much as I hate to see this weekend’s rain ruin Easter, my citrus trees vote for a nice soaker.