Easy Forecast 'til Saturday, Then ??

The pattern is pretty well locked for the next six-seven days, then uncertainty abounds on the long-range. For Monday and Tuesday. it’s more of the same with hot, humid, early summer weather. A cold front barely breaks through early Wednesday morning — with a broken line of showers and a few claps of thunder — dropping the humidity and the morning lows by just a few degrees into the 60s on the Northshore and South Mississippi for a delightful end to the week.

Humidity returns a bit next Saturday with just a few widely scattered afternoon showers possible in locations west and north of New Orleans, then a somewhat higher chance next Sunday — but even then it will still be scattered with better chances in Hammond than in Biloxi. After that….

Much uncertainty. The European family of models and their AI model forecast some upper air energy to lower temperatures aloft, making showers and storms easier to form. The American model is digging its heels in. It’s really a subtle difference that’s makes a huge impact on the forecast.

You can barely see the front on the graphic, but it will feel better on Thursday and Friday with afternoon highs down 2-3 degrees, morning lows down about 6-7 and much lower humidity.

Not everyone will get the brief early AM Wednesday showers which could happen anytime between 4-7 AM and drop 0.1” if you are lucky. So keep watering.

Something I don’t talk much about: Heat index. Add about 5-6 degrees tomorrow and Tuesday for the way it feels based on humidity. I think the index is subjective and imprecise- if I’m at a beach and there’s a breeze, it feels a lot better even though the temperature and humidity, thus the heat index, is the same.

As usual this time of year…..add a few degrees of temperatures of inland locations well away from the Lake or Sound such as Poplarville or Amite. Subtract 3-5 degrees if you are on the water.

Saturday’s showers and storms should be widely scattered and mainly in areas like Hammond, Folsom, and Franklinton. Sunday’s will be a bit more widespread with scattered showers probably as far east as Slidell-Picayune.

I have to lean towards the European modeling in forecasting a rather wet week from Memorial Day through June 1. I wouldn’t be surprised to see two or three days with showers or thunderstorms in this period, though I can’t tell you exactly when. The good news may be that temperatures will be reasonable with lows averaging in the low 70s and highs mid 80s because of the increased clouds.

I’m still expecting a good part of June to be dry with the exception of a three or four day wet spell sometime mid-month. Then, I think the script will flip as deep tropical moisture invades during the last week with its daily threat of thunderstorms. That’s our American version of the Monsoon Season.

And yes, I haven’t completely given up on a tropical development either in the extreme Western Caribbean near the Nicaragua or Honduran coast OR in the nearby Pacific. The most likely time would be during the second week of June.

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach shows some nice beach weather. The front makes it through there as well by mid-day Wednesday with the same lowering of humidity and AM lows. Showers an storms should hold off until Memorial Day.