End of nice weather in sight

Our lovely stretch of weather is coming to an end, but can we make it stretch through Easter? Latest models insist in squeezing scattered, light showers out Easter Sunday early afternoon. Therefore, I must go with this since I’m more of a model-ologist than meteorologist. Don’t worry though, these are the type of showers that chase the kids in for a snack and wet the ground only to see the sun return 5 minutes later.

Other than the Easter rain question, tonight should feature the last upper 40 degree reading of the spring in most Northshore and MS locations. Thursday will be noticeably drier and cooler. Then, the heat and humidity ramps up for the weekend.

Here’s my key points:

1) Humidity will not be as bad as it was two weeks ago when lows stopped in the mid- to upper-70s. Saturday will feature more clouds than sun — then bye bye sun until next Thursday.

2) Friday’s highs could see a lot of variation ranging from near 80 at the water to upper 80s in a few inland locations (Folsom, Bush etc)

3) Again, I adjust the highs and lows for a few more degrees of spread than Foreca indicates based on dry soils.

4) Timing of the showers from Monday-Wednesday of next week is in uncertain. Dying, weak front will stall near the Gulf Coast before heading north again. This does not look like a heavy rain producer, but a half-inch one day and a few tenths the next is not out of the question. Some areas will see the most on one day, others the next. Severe weather should NOT be a problem, either.

5) Having said that….European model targets next Tuesday and Wednesday as the days with the greatest chance of getting more than a tenth of an inch. The AI from Europe says Monday and Wednesday. We will see….

6) Since we’ve now gone over a week without rain and much sun, water anything newly planted.

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Expect rain chances to decrease next Thursday April 24 for a 4-5 day stretch of dry, seasonably warm and humid weather with highs low 80s, lows 60s with south wind. That should add up to another great weekend after Easter — both here and in NW Florida.

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach looks like something out of a physics book. With humid, onshore flow and cloudy skies, daily variation in temperature at the beach practically disappears starting on Sunday. Clouds will move in mid-day Saturday there, but may hold off through most of the weekend if you are closer to Destin. Still a bit too cool for my taste - give it another few weeks.