Few showers tomorrow, then nice

The upper level system has left followed by the real cold front which will arrive tomorrow evening with scattered light showers. Don’t expect much rain. Then, a really nice Saturday and Sunday with low humidity and AM lows in the mid 60s, highs mid 80s Northshore. Next week will see a gradual return to heat and humidity, but with no chance of rain until Thursday at the earliest. The real question continues to be whether a tropical depression or storm will form in the Western Caribbean about a week-and-a-half from now.

The Foreca graphic shows the chance of showers tomorrow, the wind shift to the north and the cooler weekend low temperatures. 90 degree temperatures look possible by the following weekend, but after all, it’s June. As usual, I think the Foreca graphic overdoes the rain chances. I can’t see anything happening until Thursday — and it’s a slim chance then.

As Bob Breck used to say: “It all depends on the tropics”. An increase in deep tropical moisture should make it here sometime from June 8-11. The rainfall anomaly (departure from normal) for 8-14 days from now is shown in the graphic below - and it clearly supports that notion that we will turn from dry to wet sometime in that period. The week after that is also wet. The question is: Will it come with a tropical depression or storm?

The models, though showing a tendency for something to develop (favorable upper level winds and deep layer moisture), are not consistently showing where and when it will happen. So, nothing more can be said except we’re still in a wait and see mode.

Again, a June storm in this location, if it happens, is not a harbinger of a bad season. There may not be another Atlantic storm until August.

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach shows just lovely beach weather from this weekend through the next. Deep moisture and showers will arrive there, too, for the following week. So if you can book a Condo and leave town today for a week - do it.