Few showers until late Sunday

We’re over in Destin, Florida where there were no showers compared to the scattered ones that were prevalent in Louisiana. Tomorrow and Saturday’s rain chances in SE Louisiana and Coastal Mississippi should be much lower than today (10-20%)— but there will be a few light ones in the mid-late afternoon hours mainly where the sea breeze runs out of steam near or just north of the I-12/10 corridor on the Northshore and maybe one a few miles south of the Lake on the Southshore. Still…not a big deal.

Shower chances for Sunday evening and Monday will increase into the 50% or over range. The reason: The upper level ridge will break down a bit and be replaced by a trough over the lower MS and Ohio Valleys. See the ECMWF forecast for Monday morning showing this. Thunderstorms that form over Arkansas will move in our direction both days. That’s unusual for the middle of summer.

The Foreca graphic looks good through Tuesday and then mellows out. Mid 90s are the rule through the Fourth, then highs come down a few degrees for 2-3 days as shower and storm chances increase. At this point, it looks like storms could sneak in late Sunday on the Northshore and could occur anytime Monday. Shower chances could stay up for Tuesday as well before going down for Wednesday-Saturday. Not expecting huge deluges — maybe a few people will get an inch, most will get a few tenths to a half inch.

Shower and storm chances should go up again from late Sunday July 12- Monday July 13 as an easterly wave comes into the Gulf. Not expecting tropical development as this should truck on through to Texas while sideswiping us with some showers and storms. After that, expect a week of lower shower chances.

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach shows a really nice weekend with highs low 90s. Shower and storm chances increase early next week and surf will come up a bit. Conditions should settle down to more typical summer for Wednesday and onto next weekend. By the way, I pick Pensacola Beach because it’s a half way point between Gulf Shores and Destin - two well-visited locations by New Orleanians. The water is beautiful over here - about 84 degrees with no jellyfish yet.