Finally...a Wet Spell

Our early season hot and dry spell is coming to an end. Expect a decent chance of rain today on the Northshore and a really good chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon into Thursday and possibly Friday. Two to four periods of shower or storms during this three-to-four day period should give most of us a couple of inches of rain. A few might see four or five inches. Other than some typically gusty winds in thunderstorms, I’m not expecting anything severe.

The Foreca graphic overdoes the days with rainfall. Today’s chances will be largely confined to the Northshore and during the afternoon hours. European modeling is bullish on it, American models not so much.

I think the Tuesday afternoon is when the big action will start with a line of thunderstorms moving through from west to east in most areas. All the models are bullish on Wednesday when showers and storms could happen at anytime. Chances still running high for Thursday before a very uncertain Friday due to a really slow moving cold front.

Notice the highs are lower beginning on Wednesday, first due to the showers, then due to an actual cold frontal passage with a bit lower humidity.

The nice weather rolls in for next weekend with sunny skies and highs in the mid 80s and lows in the mid to upper 60s. Not perfect, but for early June we will take it. I don’t expect showers to return until at least a week from Tuesday at the earliest.

The map below shows the rainfall anomaly for June 1-8 from the European model. It shows really above normal rainfall south of Cuba extending into the Eastern Gulf and the Florida peninsula. That’s one of the reasons why I think tropical development is likely in that area or the Eastern Gulf during the second week of June. A leftover cold front being dragged into the tropics by an upper level low, then being replaced by a ridge to the north is a favorable pattern for this type of development.

Though I could speculate on what will happen, I’d rather give it some time. Our rain and temperature forecast in early-mid June depends a lot on what will happen with this system . Very few early June storms have become significant hurricanes; most are rain makers in the Eastern Gulf.

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach shows the wet period from late Wednesday through Friday and then a nice weekend.