Finally...Showers and Storms Likely

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If you haven’t seen the rain yet, hang in there, you will surely get some. The situation is evolving as expected, but the storms have been more localized than I anticipated. The Southshore and Western St. Tammany have been the big rainfall winners so far, but more widespread rain is expected tomorrow evening through Friday. A surface front will lie just to our north (dashed blue line) generating storms and with upper level winds from the north, they will move in our direction. Upper air conditions are also favorable. The National Weather Service expects an 80% chance of rain on Thursday and 50% Thursday night and that seems reasonable, Many of us will get an inch, and quite a few could get two inches. Highs could be held down into the upper 80s for a few days.

But as the upper air trough shown by the orange and yellows moves through early Saturday the front will wash out. This means the physical mechanism generating the rain will greatly diminish. So, showers and storms will become much more spotty and amounts will lower over the weekend. The sun will come in and out causing highs to creep back up to 90, but not the mid 90s we’ve been used to. This may not be that bad a weekend.

The Foreca graphic clearly shows the substantial chance of showers and storms starting late tomorrow afternoon and extending into Friday morning. Storms will move from north to the south. After another scorcher tomorrow, extensive cloud cover should hold the highs down into the 80s for Thursday and Friday.

On Saturday, Sunday morning and early afternoon, the graphic overdoes the rainfall so I’ve crossed out some of it. I see widely scattered late afternoon shower both days. With temperatures holding near 90, it might just feel much better outside than it has in a few weeks. Next week sees more of the same, scattered afternoon showers — 3o-40% chance with highs in the 90-92 range.

In the tropics, the system close to the Cabo Verde Islands has a decent chance of developing into a depression, maybe a tropical storm in the next day or two. Then, models rush to kill it because of the wind shear. Some years, every wave starts to spin when it hits the Atlantic and you’d swear the Africans were dancing in circles to make it happen. But not this year as explained countless times. Also, the long-range European model continues to show no chance of anything in the Gulf through Sept. 28. Keep this up for another few weeks and I’ll stick a fork in hurricane season.

Concerning our weather and when the heat will finally end….Hmmm. There’s no obvious break in sight with low 90s afternoon heat extending perhaps to the last few days of September where models are showing some encouraging upper air changes. Usually, we see a two day break somewhere in early- to mid-September, but the models aren’t showing that. To cool off watch Big 10 football and dream that you were there.

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach shows a really wet period Thursday to early Saturday morning with numerous showers and storms. After that, they overplay the rainfall. The NWS Mobile office gives 40% scattered shower chances from Saturday afternoon on into next week and that seems reasonable. Beach air temperatures will be lower with highs mainly mid 80s. There will be extensive cloud cover into Sunday.