Fingers crossed for better weekend

This monsoonal weather with daily downpours makes me think I’m living in Costa Rica. It does keep the high temperatures down, today stopped at 87 in Slidell. Offshore or coastal storms at daybreak build or redevelop inland as soon as the temperature hits 80 well before noon. In many locations along the I-10/12 corridor, storms have been more common in the morning than afternoon. That pattern will continue through Thursday, then expect a bit of a change.

As explained in the last newsletter, the onshore flow will decrease slightly and an upper air ridge will mean less rising motion for Friday and Saturday. That translates to more sun, fewer showers (30% chance), amounts down to a few hundredths to maybe a tenth of an inch, and timing more of an afternoon affair. Sunday is somewhat in doubt as the upper air ridge moves northward, hence the “fingers crossed”.

Unfortunately, we’ll be back to increased showers and storm for next Monday and Tuesday.

The Foreca graphic looks realistic with highs stopping in the upper 80s to near 90. You can see the rainfall break extending from late Thursday afternoon until Sunday afternoon - about enough time to mow the grass. Seriously, it’s a bit unclear when we will get back into the showers - late Sunday or Monday

Expect a good chance of showers and storms for most of next week. We could see another 1.5 to 3 inches of rain for the remainder of June. Other than perhaps this weekend, it’s hard to clearly see any day when I can confidently say there won’t be any rain for the rest of June.

In the tropics, some good news. I’m expecting the forecast for the total number of storms to drop to about normal. The ocean heat content (temps in uppermost layers) in the main development region (From Africa across the Atlantic to the Antilles) has dropped to slightly below normal. The blue line shows the normal, the red is this year; the light brown at the top was last year. This heat content is a leading predictor in forecasting the number of storms, so if the heat goes down, so does the number of storms. Also, the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone is unusually far south - that’s a place where low level convergence helps produce tropical activity. That location is also favors fewer storms. However, I still see U.S. landfalls this year, even if the number is lower.

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach shows a wet Wednesday and Thursday with 50-50 shower and thunderstorm chances Friday-Sunday. There will be a few periods of sun in between, but not ideal beach weather.