Fog -> Wind -> Frost -> Beautiful

Or, the subtitle could read: If you don’t like the weather, just wait a few hours. First threat: Fog. Patchy fog could be a problem tomorrow morning and might be a more serious threat on Saturday morning. But…these events are notoriously difficult to forecast, so listen to news radio to see if its soupy before tearing off at 80 mph across the Causeway or Twin Span to go fishing. Otherwise, warm weather will prevail on Friday and Saturday with scattered showers during the late morning or early afternoon on Friday.

Second threat: Wind, which will gust to 25-30 mph over land, near 40 on the bridges Sunday night and Monday as the cold air streams in. Announcers will be talking about wind chill as Monday morning’s near 40 will feel like the upper teens & 20’s. Time to find that winter jacket you used once last year during the snowstorm.

Third threat: As the wind dies down Monday evening, frost or even a light freeze in some areas Tuesday morning. If you have some beautiful flowers or prized vegetables you want to keep until Thanksgiving, cover them and they should make it. I don’t see another frost or freeze for a few more weeks. The Monday noon forecast map from the ECMWF courtesy of TropicalTidbits shows that the cold air outbreak is a bit stronger than the one I showed you on Tuesday. Snow flurries now fill the higher terrain in Tennessee. The red arrow shows our wind. This cold front will make it all the way to Miami.

Finally….as quickly as the cold blew in, it will blow out. The end of next week features 70 degree highs with low humidity.

The Foreca graphic looks great. Tomorrow’s scattered showers should be light and more likely in the late morning and early afternoon hours. An upper air trough (or wave) will cause the upward motion and the showers, but the wave will move through quickly ending any showers by mid-afternoon.

The much advertised cold front will come through around daybreak on Sunday. However, unless you are watching the wind direction, you may not notice it. The atmosphere will be too dry to support more than a sprinkle at best. The cold air will take a while to filter in. Sunday should feature highs in the low 70s, but the wind will pick up by late afternoon, it will start to feel chilly, and a few leaves will begin to fall.

Monday morning will be a cold and windy affair. Lows upper 30s to low 40s Northshore, mid 40s South. The wind will keep any frost from forming. Highs only mid 50s. Winds will be highest on the bridges and on the Southshore near the Lake where gusts to gale force could occur.

Tuesday morning will see widespread frost on the Northshore with even a light freeze in many rural areas. 27-28 degrees seems likely for the coldest areas, 29-30 for many Northshore locations, and 34-35 for the more densely populated hearts of suburbia. Southshore temperatures should stop in the upper 30s to near 40 - a bit too warm for frost. By the way, the earliest frost observed in Slidell was Oct. 19, 2021 and the average frost date is Nov. 20, so we will be a bit early, but not unheard of.

After that, beautiful weather through next Friday and a gradual warm up.

Next Saturday should be fair and warm with highs mid 70s. Next chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday Nov. 16- Tuesday Nov. 18 with a Pacific front. Then, a few days of nice weather without extreme cold from Nov. 19-21.