Forecast turning even cooler

This front has a look that means business. Translation: It’s coming through with a vengeance in a way that a good running back in football alters a game. This ECMWF forecast of tomorrow evening’s weather shows us a why. The surface cold front (blue line) will stretch all the way from New York to Texas. A Canadian high over the High Plains packs plenty of isobars (that those little black lines) between the front and the high means that there will be a lot of wind moving the air south near the surface. Aloft, the shape and position of an upper trough (dashed red line) means that it will extend further south as it moves southeastward, also strengthening the shift in weather.

How big a change for Saturday? Northshore lows in the mid-upper 40s, Southshore lows in the upper 50s (with a ton of wind). Highs just about 70.

The Foreca graphic clearly shows the plummet and the gradual recovery. There’s not much to say here — notice that the winds blow from the north and east almost all week. With nighttime lows in the 50s, humidity will stay low. Winds could gust to 30 Friday night and Saturday AM, especially near the Lake and Sound.

Foreca graphic for Louis Armstron shows the same pattern but with a ton of wind (steady 20, gusts to 35) on Friday night and Saturday courtesy of that warm lake. Forecasting upper 50s on the south side of a hot bathtub in October is pretty amazing.

Something interesting happens to prolong the good weather. The trough aloft leaves behind a piece of energy off the Southeast Coast and one of these semi-tropical storms gradually forms. This forecast for this Sunday shows that low plus an upper air pattern that looks like the Greek letter omega over the South. Omega patterns indicate stuck or slow moving weather. The low will stick around meandering just off the East Coast driving forecasters crazy for maybe five days. This will keep us in beautiful seasonable weather all next week and into the following weekend…and beyond. Highs low to mid 80s, lows low 60s with reasonable humidity levels.

The only problem: No rain for a long time! Next chance of rain could be almost two weeks from now Oct. 28 or 29 with another cold front. Let’s hope it comes through on time before the goblins take to the streets.

Since the weather will go beautifully boring….I’ll be posting less often in the next week or so to get some other stuff done. Enjoy your fall.