Forecast + Weather Instrument Gifts

We’re in for a lovely stretch of “Chamber of Commerce”, Southern California-like weather in the next week with mostly sunny weather and warm afternoons. The only concerns are: 1) Patchy morning fog from Saturday through Monday. 2) The lack of rain. Next chance is late next Thursday, a week from now. 3) Humidity and morning lows will rise from Tuesday through Thursday. I’ll add a few details in the next section and give you my preliminary look into the Thanksgiving weekend in Long-Range Ramblings.

Every wonder what weather instruments I use? Some people think I must have a fancy collection of gizmos to be able to forecast. Or worse still, that I stand out in the storm like Jim Cantore. Not so! I’m as much model-ologist as meteorologist and these are all available on the Internet. Also, present observations can’t help you forecast more than the next few hours. So…. I have only two, inexpensive instruments that help me understand how the weather in my yard is different from the airport’s weather. I’ll share this in my Weather Gifts section.

A gradual warming trend in the high temperatures and a more significant increase in the lows are depicted in the Foreca graphic. Mostly sunny weather is the theme through next Thursday morning with just two exceptions. First, some patchy morning fog is possible Saturday through Monday. The Weather Service thinks this could start tonight, but the winds need to shift around to light southerly and I don’t see that happening tonight. Second, some afternoons will start to fill up with gray-bottomed stratocumulus clouds, but they won’t yield a drop.

Humidity will noticeably increase by the middle of next week in advance of the next cold front. The timing is still not certain, but most models are zeroing in on Thursday night to Friday morning as the best time for showers and thunderstorms. With all the dry vegetation, we’ll have to watch if the winds pick up before the rain next Thursday — could present a forest fire danger.

After the front comes through next Friday, expect Saturday and Sunday, Nov. 22 & 23 to be mostly sunny with highs mid 70s and lows mostly in the 50s. We could see another shot of showers on Monday or Tuesday of Thanksgiving week, Nov. 24 &25 with warm weather. Warm weather should continue through Thanksgiving with low rainfall chances for the annual smoking (or frying) of the bird, followed by a significant cold front with showers and storms quickly coming through Black Friday or Saturday Nov. 29. Then, it’s back to sweaters and jackets with cold weather for that Sunday and Monday.

The instruments I use are an Accurite rain gauge plus a temperature and humidity sensor. This tells me how much rain I received since amounts can vary within a few blocks. That helps me to know my watering needs. The low temperatures on a winter night help me to see my micro-climate to help me judge my need for frost and freeze protection. For example, I know that I’m usually 5 degrees warmer than the airport under calm conditions, but only 2 degrees warmer on very windy nights. That way, when the forecast calls for a light freeze at the airport, I know I don’t need to worry about freeze, just frost protection.

Why don’t I have an anemometer to measure the winds? Reason: If you have an average suburban lot 1/3-1/4 acre lot with trees, there’s no place where you can accurately measure the wind.

I have found the Accurite brand to give me high accurate measurements if you place them in the correct locations. For the rain gauge, I place the tipping bucket on top of a fence away from trees. For thermometers. I put the sensor inside a plastic shelter called a pagoda which looks like a series of upside down pie plates. Then, I hang the pagoda at about 4 feet height in dense shade away from the house. For the indoor display, make sure that you can get to the low and high temperatures from the current one, and that you can view a history of rainfall amounts for each day for the last few weeks. That will help you understand what your yard has experienced when you’ve been out of town.

So there you have it, these can make a great Christmas or housewarming gift for about $50. Search through all the mystifying varieties of Accurite displays on Amazon to find one that will work.