Four Storms in Next Week = 4" ?

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That’s what the European model says. We will see 4-5 shower/thunderstorm events in the next week that leave us with a sopping 4” of rain. Though it’s incredibly hard to forecast rainfall amounts, I tend to believe it. The satellite image below shows the wave of broken clouds moving in from the east that I alerted you to on Tuesday is now over Georgia and near Tallahassee. This wave will bring the upward motion needed for enhanced storm activity beginning late tomorrow and peaking on Monday.

Also in the image is the start of another Eastern Pacific hurricane that will threaten the Mexico coast near or north of Acapulco. It will be fed by a surge of fast moving Caribbean moisture associated with the wave near the Yucatan. That’s really good news for us — more Eastern Pacific storms means more upper level west wind outflow over the Caribbean or more wind shear to kill any storm development there.

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The Foreca graphic has the right idea with the increase in rainfall over the weekend and peaking early next week. Except, I’d increase the rainfall chances and amounts from Saturday - Monday. Friday’s rain chances: About 50-50; 70% after that through Wednesday. Highs will be downright reasonable for late June: near 90 and then upper 80s on days with the greatest rain chances. Practical application: Tonight or tomorrow would be a great time to mow your grass.

Note, however, what happens on July 4 — a drying trend. Storm chances go down just in time for the fireworks and a big weekend. Fingers crossed, but the European has an upper air trough to our east that shifts the rainfall towards the SE Coast as opposed to the Gulf Coast. If so, expect firecracker hot temperatures for that weekend, mid 90s.

We seem to be in a pattern of 4-7 days of daily deluge followed by 4-7 days of much less activity, more sun, and heat. If the “Euro” is right on that upper air trough, we could see a hot dry spell from July 5-10.

If something tropical were to develop in July, the area between the Carolinas, Bermuda, and the Bahamas seems like a good bet. Water temperatures there are well above normal and a left-over front that slowly acquires tropical characteristics could be the spark. Anything there would not impact us.

By the way, Andrea, that brief swirl in the middle of the Atlantic, is long gone. That’s the reason you don’t look at total storm counts to measure the strength of a season — something like Andrea would never have been found much less named before we had satellites.

The “real” hurricane season for us starts about a week into August and last into early October most years. Hoping for a real dull year, but all it takes is one.

Surprise! The Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach really misses the showers and storms this weekend. I expect a lot of storms in the next week at the beach just like here in Louisiana and Mississippi. Note that they start to dry out a little earlier, maybe late Thursday. Could be a great July 4 weekend there. If you wait until after that, it’s jellyfish season until the first cold front washes them away.