Friday showers likely & lower high temps

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This visible satellite image shows the showers that were over the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday are now south of the Panhandle. Some of them could arrive pre-dawn on the Mississippi Gulf Coast and then move west and inland through the day. I’m optimistic that even Slidell and Gulfport, which have missed out on most of the rain this week, will get in on the action since this is more of an organized tropical system than pop-up showers. With the cloud cover, I’m also a bit more optimistic than the Weather Service in holding highs down into the mid-80s.

Since this system is more east-west than north-south, Saturday still looks like a day with a decent chance of showers, but they will favor the morning hours on the Southshore and near the Lakes and Sound, and inland areas including Baton Rouge in the early-mid afternoon hours. So, they might interfere with the pre-game festivities, but should be over well before game time. Anytime LSU plays Clemson we can be certain of one thing: The Tigers will win.

The Foreca graphic highlights the higher rain chances and amounts tomorrow. After that, the graphic and myself disagree a bit with the Weather Service which thinks rain chances stay up in 60% rain into next week. I see more modest 40-50% chances on Saturday and Sunday with more sun on Sunday. Monday and Tuesday will feature more sun, highs in the 90-93 range with only a 30% chance. Then shower chances go up for later in the week.

Much uncertainty than usual exists for late September through mid October with weak steering at the jet stream level in the next week confounding the models. September will be hotter than normal, but we’ll see very few days reach the mid 90s just because solar heating isn’t as much. Weather should turn drier after next week. Some long-range models are showing cooler air coming in about the 20th, but I’m not certain if I buy it. October will turn cooler than normal across much of the U.S. except perhaps, us. Some long-range gurus see the possibility of a tropical storm in the Gulf wandering around before heading east into Florida’s West Coast. Those tracks have happened in October, but it’s been many, many years ago. Could this be the year that Tampa gets a hurricane?

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach shows a decent weekend after tomorrow. Everyone agrees that there shouldn’t be any flags for rip current. However, the Weather Service thinks there will be more of chance of showers (60%) than what’s depicted (30%). So keep your cell phone on your favorite weather radar app because there will be at least a few showers that will cause you to rush indoors. Showers could be near the beaches in the AM before developing inland later in the day AND chances are a bit greater in the Pensacola-Gulf Shores area than further east. Next week will see an uptick in showers.