From Early April to Early June Weather

Unlike last week’s challenges…Finally, an easy forecast! The upper low that I pointed out in last Thursday’s letter ended up closer to the Jackson area than here. This meant a much better weekend after Friday’s rainstorm as I pointed out in my “Wound Up on Weather” Facebook page on Friday. If you aren’t following me there, you should in order to get updates between my letters.

In the next three days, our below-normal early April weather will be replaced by hot, humid, but dry weather more typical of early June. Unless you are right on the water, high temperatures will hit hit or exceed 90 starting on Thursday with low temperatures not falling below the mid 70s. The hot spell should last for a week with a minor drop of a few degrees after that. Other than an isolated shower chance tomorrow, we will see very few rain chances the rest of May. In short: Pool and beach weather is on.

One more nice day with more sun than clouds and highs in the upper 70s. Try to get out and enjoy this - we probably won’t see one like this until late October.

The warm up begins on Tuesday before reaching it’s peak on Thursday. Then, it’s more of the same each day through next Tuesday with highs near 90 or low 90s along the I-10/I-12 corridor.

Because the Lake and Sound are still cool, high temperatures could be 4 or 5 degrees cooler on the water and a sea breeze will kick in during the afternoon, so that locations 5 miles inland might hit their high temperature at noon or 1 PM and then hold steady or drop a degree as the sea breeze kicks in.

The tail end of a cold front will approach looks to approach the Gulf Coast on Wednesday May 21. Light showers look possible, if the front makes it through high temperatures will drop 5 degrees back to the mid-to-upper 80s for the remainder of that week. I’m expecting maybe one other rain chance the rest of the month with light amounts. Welcome to our feast or famine sub-tropical climate.

This dry pattern should extend into early June, so you eventually will need those sprinklers after all. How mid-June shapes up depends on if that tropical development in the Caribbean happens and where it tracks. Usually, these are more rain making tropical storms than wind-producing hurricanes, but there have been notable exceptions. I still think that our July and August “monsoon” season will feature above average thunderstorms, but we’ll have to see when in June this begins to be a factor.

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach finally shows some nice beach weather after the showers clear on Tuesday. Note, however, that the winds will be a 9-16 knots courtesy of a big land-sea temperature difference. That’s marginal for rip currents, so pay attention to those beach flags.