Fronts coming; Hurricane threat over

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Really good news. Several cold fronts are coming, one for next weekend and the other, the following one. I don’t see anyway a hurricane could sneak up from the Yucatan in the next 2-3 weeks given the upper level winds, so I think the hurricane season is over for Louisiana east to Pensacola. In my opinion…The fat lady has sung.

This graphic, an ICON model forecast for late Friday, gives you part of the reason why. A passing cold air mass in the Northeast and low pressure off the East Coast ( heading north) will turn winds around to the NE (red arrows) bringing in cooler and drier air for Saturday and Sunday. Also on the map is about where the future Tropical Storm or Hurricane Jerry will be, near the Virgin Islands. The red dashed lines roughly parallel the upper wind flow, so there’s a low of NW wind aloft behind and East Coast trough keep tropical systems well to our east off Florida. That pattern will continue explaining why the fat lady sings.

The bad news is that most of us got skunked on rainfall from the system in the Gulf this weekend, which concentrated its rain from the MS Gulf Coast into the Pensacola area (Gulfport has about 0.7”). The next chance of rain will be almost two weeks from now on the 17th. With highs this week approaching 90, everything in the garden is thirsty.

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The Foreca graphic looks accurate. Tomorrow will be partly sunny with a 40% chance of afternoon showers, maybe a little higher in areas along and just north of the I-10 in Mississippi. I expect showers to be over by the time the Long Beach ‘Cruisin the Coast parade starts. Sun will return on Wednesday with showers very isolated. Highs will creep up towards 90 by Wednesday.

The “backdoor” cold front moves through dry late Thursday with Friday to Sunday’s highs between 83-85, lows getting into the low 60s. It will feel nice with low humidity.

Before we get into the tropics, let’s look at the week of the 13th. Expect highs upper 80s, lows mid to upper 60s with sunny, dry weather until Thursday. A significant cold front should approach from the NW on Friday the 17th giving us a chance of showers and storms either of those days. Then the following weekend will really feel like fall - time to try out those Halloween costumes (if you;re into those things) with fair weather and highs that may struggle to reach 80 and lows in the 50s.

In the tropics, Tropical Storm Jerry will almost certainly develop and track towards, or more likely north of the Virgin Islands by next Friday. Then, it should move northward and not threaten the US. There are no other concerns.

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach shows nice weather starting Tuesday. Locals love October with few tourists and weather still warm enough to enjoy the beach.