Frost tonight, then drought

Though last night’s frigid low temperatures were a degree or two colder than expected, my forecast of little frost was accurate. Tonight will be different with frost likely in many rural areas north of I-12/I-10 on the Northshore but probably not in the more protected suburban areas (and certainly not on the Southshore). Why? I expect a good 6-7 degree difference between rural locations like Slidell’s airport and my citrus “grove” in Cross Gates. Clear skies, low humidity and calm winds through much of the night mean excellent radiation-al cooling. Also, winds at tree-top level will turn to the SE in the wee hours of the morning bringing in just at touch of Gulf moisture to aid with the frost or dew. Those normally colder areas could come in anywhere from 32-35 with the more protected areas in the upper 30s.

After tonight, well there’s just about nothing to talk about. The ECMWF forecast for Monday morning shows a subtropical, surface high pressure area over Florida giving us a light and somewhat humid breeze (blue arrows). Aloft, there’s an upper level high that will be building east from Mexico during the week (red colored contours). Together, it’s spelled “Chamber of Commerce” weather with sunny skies and a dry week. In fact, I think there will be no more rain for the month of March. Some of you will be happy, but some of us gardeners will be hauling out the hoses.

The Foreca graphic still looks a little cold. Regardless, you often get frost when it’s 37 because the thermometer is at eye level. Radiational cooling makes the ground five degrees colder than at eye level. After tomorrow, look at all the sunny weather. I think I’ll take a vacation….

Expect the next week beyond this graphic to be somewhat more humid with highs in the low 80s and lows in the low 60s. There may be a few more clouds in the morning hours. However, I don’t see any rain until April 2 at the earliest. My long-range guru still thinks there will be one more last hurrah of winter up north sometime in early April - but in April, even if the cold air makes it down here we’re talking 40 degree weather.

There has been a death in the family and posting may be irregular over the next 10 days. Fortunately, there’s just about zero going in the weather.