Frosty Friday morn then rapid changes

Next week will be a lot different than last. Yes, we may all be 5 lbs. heavier, but I’m talking about the weather. The Thanksgiving cold snap will be a bit colder than anticipated with many suburban Northshore locations seeing frost on Friday morning. Highs in the low 60s will get us in that holiday mood.

After a warmer and partly cloudy day on Saturday, severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday morning ahead of our next front. Though the front will clear the area Sunday afternoon, clouds will linger before another chance of showers late Monday into Tuesday. The rest of the week looks nice. Highs from Monday - Wednesday should be in the upper 50s to low 60s, lows in the 40s. That’s a lot different than the upper 70s to low 80s we’ve seen recently. Also, that will prepare us for future cold snaps later in December.

The Foreca graphic shows the two distinct rain events. Remember that the blue bars show the rain in the last six hours - so the bar at 6 AM Sunday could mean that a thunderstorm passed through anytime from midnight to 6 AM.

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and noticeably cooler with highs struggling to reach 70. It will be a really nice traveling day. Thursday, colder still with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s, but too much wind for any frost. Highs in the mid 60s means a perfect day for grilling and outdoor games with the kids.

Friday has the morning frost with most Northshore lows in the mid 30s, about 6-8 degrees warmer than the one we experienced three weeks ago. Well protected suburban areas may stay in the upper 30s with patchy frost and the Southshore will be closer to 40. Afternoon highs in the low 60s make it perfect for shopping as you imagine yourself in one of those bundle-up Hallmark scenes.

Saturday will start out with high clouds which should increase by day’s end. Highs near 70. Thunderstorms could roll in anytime after midnight and another batch could move through during the late morning or early afternoon hours on Sunday. Though its too early to say much, these could be severe and unlike many of these events, the dynamics favor the storms staying near the coast instead of well inland in Mississippi. Temperatures could rise well into the 70s.

A cold front moves through late Sunday, but stalls just south of us. That leaves us in the cloud cover for a cool Monday with lows in the upper 40s to near 50 and highs in the mid 60s. More showers move in for late Monday and early Tuesday. Some models are showing a few inches of rain, but let’s not throw a party just yet. Wednesday turns fair and cooler.

Thursday Dec. 4 & Friday Dec 5: Fair weather. Lows 40s. Highs near 60. Next possible cold snap Monday 8 & Tuesday Dec. 9.

The European model forecast temperatures for that first week of December shows a story worth telling (graphic courtesy of Weatherbell) A ton of cold air over the Mississippi Valley extends down to the Memphis area and in the Plains south to Dallas. Temperatures in Minnesota and Wisconsin are expected to run 12 degrees below normal with extensive snow cover south to Northern Illinois. Meanwhile, in Louisiana, temperatures are above normal, though I think to a lesser degree than shown. A tight gradient lies between the two ( the white area) and that is where the low pressure areas should track (from San Antonio to Nashville).

Though this won’t be true for every week this winter, I expect this to be a typical pattern. What this means for us is: 1) The worst of the cold should stay north of us for many of these outbreaks. 2) Heavy rains should extend from East Texas through North Mississippi and into Tennessee along that gradient. We will get in on some of that rain with McComb and Baton Rouge getting more rain this winter than Biloxi. 3) Because the cold air will be so close to us, I expect one arctic air mass to invade our area with freezing weather for a day or two,most likely in mid-late December or early January. It’s hard to say how bad this could be, but I haven’t seen two winters in a row with single digit cold. So my guess would be something warmer than that, maybe upper teens to low 20s? Long-range gurus think late January and February will be warmer than average.