Frosty Morns; Sunny, Cool Afternoons

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Deep South weather has settled down after a tough Friday in the forecast department. I knew the NWS was over-hyping the rain and severe weather, but was surprised that all rain held off until Saturday for those of most of us along the I-12 to I-10 corridor. On the other hand, if you lived near Bogalusa, you probably thought I was a forecasting genius.

This week will be an easier forecast. Expect a sunny week with five or six frosty mornings with afternoon highs mostly in the 50s. A reinforcing shot of cold air will arrive Thursday, as shown in this NWS forecast map early Thursday morning. The cold front in northern Mississippi will move quickly in our direction and the tight spacing of the brown isobars means a windy day.

The next chance of rain will be next Monday, Jan. 19.

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Here’s a few points to add to the Foreca graphic. First, we will see more sun tomorrow than the graphic shows. Second, watch out for the wind chill on Thursday where the morning will feel like it’s well down into the 20s and the afternoon will feel like the upper 30s. Third, there will be a lot of rural vs. city temperature differences on Tuesday and again each morning from Thursday through next Monday. If it reaches 28 at the airport in Slidell, many subdivisions in the more densely populated suburbans will probably stop at 32. Anything 37 or below could give you frost. That’s because the temperature is observed and forecast at eye level, but is often 5 degrees cooler at the ground.

Models are having real problems in trying to resolve what’s happening beyond a week. That means lots of variation between models and the accuracy of these forecasts is lower than usual. The culprit: Tight swirls or gradients in the high speed jet stream in data void areas offshore of Alaska. Satellites do a fine job of measuring temperatures but often can’t give you much in the way of upper air winds. Commercial aircraft are a big help, but don’t fly everywhere.

In situations like this, I tend to favor the European model and that model favors a warmer solution. My Louisiana sweet orange tree, which is already budding, would agree. As you can see, I’ve totally eliminated the cold spell of Jan 19 & 20.

Tuesday Jan. 20 Partly Cloudy Low 40 High 60

Wednesday Jan 21 Showers Low 51 High 64

Thursday Jan 22 Clearing Low 56 High 71

Warmth should continue through Sat. Jan. 24