Gradually cooler with rain chances

If you’re tired of this Disney World, morning fog, afternoon warmth weather with no rainfall, listen up. Our first system will give us scattered showers and storms on Friday before leaving us with a mostly dry and slightly cooler weekend.

The next system arrives Monday night and Tuesday with more scattered showers followed by a nice Wednesday with lows in the 50s and highs in the 70s. Then, a cold front will come through, probably without a drop, late Tuesday or early Thanksgiving morning, giving us fair weather with highs in the 60s. See Long-Range Ramblings for my post-Thanksgiving Friday forecast.

I disagree with the Foreca rainfall. Let’s go through this day by day.

Tomorrow and Thursday should feature more-of-the-same Orlando-like weather where the only threat is morning fog. The key factor in whether this will be a dense fog on the ground is the wind speed. If it’s close to 7 mph or higher, expect there to more low clouds and less fog. My take is that the wind is a bit high for dense fog so Im going with low clouds, but it’s such a difficult forecast. Either way, that cloud or fog will burn off by mid-morning.

Friday should feature more of a mix of clouds and sun with scattered showers and thunderstorms arriving from the west around sunrise. Another batch should move through mid-day before moving east by late afternoon before prep football playoffs. A half-inch give or take a few tenths seems like a reasonable amount. Temperatures still warm and humid here.

Saturday may be just a few degrees cooler under mostly sunny skies, but I can’t dismiss the chance of a brief, passing afternoon shower (30% chance, not shown in Foreca). Sunday should be nice, sunny with lows near 60 and highs low - mid 70s.

Monday could be a little cooler with increasing clouds in the afternoon. I think Foreca is moving in the precipitation too early and giving us too much. It seems more likely Monday night and anytime Tuesday.

Wednesday should see a break from any shower chances with temperatures still stuck in the 60s and 70s.

A significant cold front will come through late next Wednesday or early Thanksgiving morning. Expect the winds to pick up and the temperatures to fall, but I doubt we will see more than a brief, passing shower. Low temperatures should be in the 50s with highs mid-upper 60s. Nice grilling or frying weather!

Black Friday should feature noticeably colder weather with lows upper 40s to near 50 and highs near 60 under partly cloudy skies. Cold, but not extreme.

Expect temperatures to rebound a bit for Saturday Nov. 30 as winds turn around to the south before another front presses through for Sunday Dec. 1 giving us a cold rain with temperatures in the 40s and 50s.

Uncertainty on the timing of the precipitations and frontal passages is higher than normal. The upper air waves that are responsible for these systems are over the Bering Sea and Siberia where I’d love to place a few more weather balloons, comrade. I’m following the European ECMWF model because it ‘s producing weather patterns that look more realistic.

My guru and quite a number of other long-range folk are forecasting a much colder than normal December over the Upper Midwest. The cold should enter in early December, moderate a bit, and return with a vengeance for mid-late December. One or two storms could give snow or freezing rain as far south as Arkansas and Tennessee. Odds favor us getting at least one cold air outbreak as a result of this, but think the most likely outcome will be a number of cold rainy days.