Groundhog's Day Pattern

I’m making a rare AM post because I’m off to having cataract surgery in a few hours. The other eye will be done on Monday - so I’m not sure when I’ll post again. After all, a cross-eyed meteorologist who see contours that cross does nobody good.

The bottom line is we’re in a wet pattern with showers and storms that will come in batches, dumping a half inch here, two inches there, with partly sunny breaks in between. And just like Groundhog’s Day, the pattern is doomed to repeat all weekend. The satellite imagery this morning tells the story. A long sweep of moisture from the Yucatan through the Gulf will be exiting our area today, but not before bubbling up some storms by late morning. The greater chances and heavier amounts will be on the Southshore, in the Hammond and Western St. Tammany areas. However, the chances are still above 50-50 for Slidell and about 50% for the Gulfport-Biloxi area.

Following behind is another long arc of clouds across Texas and Oklahoma associated with another, more vigorous upper air wave. That one will arrive tomorrow morning giving everyone showers and storms, some of which could dump an inch or two. If that comes through in the early AM hours, as the European model indicates, there could be a break for several hours before more showers fire off in the afternoon.

And like the movie, on and on it goes. Saturday will see about the same weather, but amounts may not be as potent. Also, afternoon storms could move in from the east where the MS Gulf Coast will finally see the heavier rains. After that, the crystal ball gets real cloudy. Sunday morning might see just morning showers with showers becoming more scattered on Monday.

As I often say …..The Foreca graphic overdoes the days with rainfall. I’m cautiously optimistic that Bill Murray will finally get it and the showers will become more scattered with a bit more sun from Monday afternoon through Thursday of next week. Until then showers and storms could move through at anytime. At least the highs will be pleasant: Low to mid 80s with humidity. Let’s hope I don’t end up as Ned Ryerson and get sucker punched by my forecast.

Modeling shows improvement a week from Sunday, May 30. Shower chances go way down, the sun comes back for most of the day, and high temperatures finally enter into summer-like upper 80s to near 90. That’s the forecast from May 30- through June 4. Then, something tropical could develop in the June 4-6 period somewhere in the Gulf or Western Caribbean. It’s way to early to say much more.