Gulf Tropical Storm after Sept. 25 ?

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Not the best of forecasts. After another reasonably pleasant morning tomorrow with lows mid 60s (inland areas) to near 70 on the Northshore, the 90 degree heat and humidity sets in again for an encore from Saturday afternoon through Wednesday. And then there’s the tropical concerns…This visible satellite photo explains why there’s nothing tropical on the immediate horizon..

First, notice the swath of dry air devoid of clouds from South Alabama up to Virginia - that’s the reason for a rain-free weekend. The National Hurricane Center was looking at a low pressure area near the question mark, but whatever was there has lost all of its showers. Other forecasters are concerned about the showers east of Jacksonville near the arrow. But this is associated with an upper level low which will track southwest placing it over Central Florida by this weekend. These models track the upper low as far west as Tampa then move it back northeast along the Georgia and Carolina coast (see the European upper level wind forecast below for Saturday morning with the arrows showing movement). None of this is favorable for tropical development since you need upper level lows to sit for three days or so over warm water to work the circulation down to the surface.

The long-range contains good news and bad news — and I’ll explain it in that section below, including a possible tropical system.

Clearly I was premature in dismissing 90 degree heat at the end of this week. On the other hand, my forecast of less rainfall in the coming week should hold true. What rain falls should be confined to scattered showers and storms Monday and Tuesday afternoon (30-40% chance) mainly due to deep tropical moisture returning. The good news is that some of these should spread inland into areas that need the rain, especially on Tuesday. Rain chances go way down for Wednesday and disappear for Thursday and Friday as cooler, drier air moves in from the north.

The map below shows both the good and the bad - it’s the German ICON model forecast for exactly a week from now, next Thursday evening Sept. 24. A cool Canadian high is forecast to move into Missouri and the cold front has pushed through our area giving us northeast winds (red arrow). Temperatures and humidity a little better than today will certainly be good news.

The bad news is the tropical low somewhere near the Yucatan peninsula. Upper air conditions are turning much more favorable for development across the Southern Gulf and extreme Western Caribbean. Plus, all long-range models are beginning to crank up something. So, this area will bear watching but it’s much too early to pin down a location and a date. Some models are developing a storm in the Bay of Campeche which could be bad for us; others are developing a system east of there and moving it across Florida. Be thankful that technology exists to even identify this possibility rather than gripe about how forecasts are all over the place and don’t get it right the first time — remember, your MD rarely gets it right the first time either.

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach shows a lovely stretch of late season beach weather with only modest chances of a brief shower or thunderstorm from Sunday-Tuesday. Highs will settle down into the 80s and actually dip lower faster beginning next Thursday since the cold air is arriving from the NE .