Heat & Drought Returns on Tuesday

Tomorrow will feature modest shower and thunderstorm coverage (30% for most of us, 20% inland areas like Folsom and Bogalusa), then the heat and drought returns for an extended period. The familiar culprits are shown in the mixed upper air and surface map shown below. An upper level high parked over us in dark red will put a cap on any growing cumulus. An extension of the surface Bermuda High (shown in blue v’s) will shunt the deep moisture south of the v’s into Texas. In it’s place, we’ll get light southwesterly winds which brings in the heat.

These patterns are pretty stable, so the heat wave looks locked in place for almost two weeks. It’s enough to make me want to head for the hills or maybe join Gov. Landry on his next trip to Greenland. A cold shoulder from some of the natives would feel good right about now.

The Foreca graphic overdoes the days with rainfall, especially on Wednesday and Thursday, but probably also on Tuesday where I’d rate the chance as “hardly worth mentioning” (15%). My take is that round one of the heat will peak late in the week with a few more clouds and some isolated shower chances on either Saturday or Sunday. Remember that 95 in Slidell means 98-99 in some inland areas. Expect heat advisories by Wednesday.

After next weekend, expect round two: A really, hot dry week where highs will probably get into the upper 90’s even in Slidell. I won’t speculate beyond that. .

There’s finally a bit of action in the tropics. One wave is half-way across the Tropical Atlantic and has a slim chance to develop into a depression or tropical storm in the next four days before it encounters wind shear in or near the Caribbean which should kill the system. That’s the yellow area shown in the NHC outlook graphic. The second, stronger, wave is just on the African Coast and will probably become a tropical storm later this week as it tracks towards the Windward/Leeward Islands. Even though several of these African waves could develop in the next month, they’ll have a hard time surviving into the Caribbean because of that strong wind shear. They will only strengthen if they move north of the islands.

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach shows weather not much different than here: Modest shower and storm chances Monday and perhaps Tuesday. Then fair, dry, and hot weather through Saturday (should have extended my red X’s into Saturday). Shower chances return next Sunday. Rip currents will not be a problem.