Heat & Drought will build

I feel like a forecaster in Phoenix in June - hot with little rain until further notice. A huge upper level heat dome will cap off most thunderstorms from forming, though there will be a few days where isolated to widely scattered showers and storms will pop up. Many of us will see only a few tenths of an inch to a little more than a half inch in the next two weeks. That’s not enough when highs will consistently reach 95-100.

Trying to forecast when the heat will break is like playing Russian Roulette. Timing the first cold front of the year here has always been one of each year’s most difficult forecasts. It’s certainly not coming in the next two weeks. Climate says Sept. 18, but I’ve seen years where you get an unexpected cool day or two in early September followed by a heat wave that doesn’t break until October. Let’s hope we don’t have one of those years.

The Foreca graphic overdoes the rainfall because its spreading the uncertainty out. My take is that there will be isolated showers tomorrow and Thursday, maybe 20% near the Lake and Sound plus the Southshore, even less inland. Friday and Saturday look dry. Sunday looks hopeful, maybe 40% chance, again higher in those areas within 20 miles of water. After that, next week looks pretty dry.

Concerning the highs, the typical rules apply. Highs within 10 miles of the Lake or Sound will range from 95 to 97. Further inland or the northwest, 98 to 100 will be more typical.

A wave most of the way to Africa (30 deg. W) should develop into at least a tropical depression, possibly a weak tropical storm. NHC rates this as a 70% chance of development. Once it approaches the Leeward islands in 6-7 days, two things could happen. First, if it tracks to the south and ends up in the Caribbean it will die, the victim of wind shear. Second, if it tracks to the north of the islands, it could survive but should re-curve to the north and then out to sea given the expected upper air pattern. Either way, it should not threaten the U.S.

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach shows the best chance of showers tomorrow or on Saturday. Otherwise, widely scattered showers and storms rule - certainly nothing to cancel anyone’s beach plans.