Heat Wave ends on Thursday

In July, our wettest month, it’s not normal to see almost cloud-free skies day-after-day with highs in the mid- to upper-90s — maybe in Dallas, but not here. (Now if we could only get 10% of the Big D’s business climate) We’re Dallas-like because of a current upper air “heat dome” or ridge shown in dark red in this map of 18,000 feet conditions.. Upper air heat suppresses cloud formation because of sinking air. A surface high in the Gulf giving us westerly flow also adds to the suppression and heat.

That upper air ridge will shrink and slide west just enough to allow a surface cold front, indicated by the blue line, to drop into Central Mississippi and Alabama by Wednesday afternoon. Even though the front won’t make it through, the low level convergence and more favorable lift will kick off thunderstorms that will move in our direction. Some might sneak in during Wednesday night, though early Thursday is the most likely time. Thursday’s high temperatures will also drop down closer to 90.

The Western heat dome will build towards us on Friday, reducing but not perhaps not eliminating the shower changes. Then, by Saturday evening a deeper upper air trough is forecast to be over the Ohio Valley (yellow curve) with a surface low near Oxford, Mississippi (could this be the vacuum created by Lane Kiffin’s departure?). This will push a stronger front in our direction - again, almost unheard of for mid-summer. Shower and thunderstorms will move in Saturday night and be with us through next Monday. This will be our chance to catch up on some needed rainfall.

The Foreca graphic spells “Muy caliente” before it spells “Relief”. Heat will build through Wednesday with many of us seeing 98 degree readings, though the thermometer may stop at 95 if you are near the Lake or Sound. Thunderstorms could sneak in here towards midnight or before 7 AM Thursday in Coastal MS and on the Northshore, but might hold off until after daybreak on the Southshore. Then, storms re-fire, back up and head from west to east giving us a good chance for a second whammy on Thursday afternoon. If we stay cloudy all day, highs could stop in the upper 80s.

Friday is probably the most challenging day to forecast. I doubt we’ll see a lot of rain, but we could get a few scattered showers. Our next system approaches us Saturday evening with more afternoon and evening showers and storms that will linger though Monday. I think we’ll get more rain from this than the graphic shows. And yes, Sunday’s high could be in the mid 80s.

We should get more rainfall than normal during the first week of August. Sunny days will feature highs in the low 90s and wet ones stopping in the upper 80s. After that, the jury is out with the European model forecasting above normal temperatures into mid-August while most of the others expect more typical conditions.

All is quiet in the Tropical Atlantic and if any development happens in the next 10 days, it is likely to be east of the Carolina or north of Bermuda and head out to sea.

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach shows three nice hot days before the storms and arrive on Thursday. Expect beach flags starting then for rip current. Next weekend looks especially wet - more so than here.