Heavy Rain Tonight, Showery, Cool Week

Probably one of the more dreary weeks of the year: Plenty of clouds with showers and a few heavy downpours all due to a slow moving upper level system. Yes, we will be seeing heavy rain, there’s a band over Lake Ponchartrain now, but the heaviest is most likely after midnight tonight and into tomorrow morning. Parts of the Northshore and South Mississippi should have the highest totals as opposed to the Southshore.

A thunderstorm complex over Texas is moving in our direction and will twist to be more parallel to the coast or perpendicular to moist inflow. That means moist air will rise over over rain cooled boundary causing more storms to continue in this area. So, 2-5” is not out of the question, especially for areas along and north of Hammond-Covington-Picayune. The good news is that the storms should diminish by daybreak & dissipate by mid-morning, well before a new batch could form tomorrow evening which could be more focused on the Southshore. Because of the breaks between systems and the different locations, I don’t see this as being a cataclysmic flash flood event. But if you live where you can get flooded, keep a NOAA Weather Radio handy and make sure your cell phone can alert you because these events often unfold in different ways than anticipated.

More storms with a few periods of heavy rain on Thursday, before amounts drop on Friday, and a few breaks in the clouds appear on Saturday.

Here’s my key points:

1) Clouds, showers, and cool weather dominate through the weekend with highs staying in the 70s. We haven’t seen a May like this in quite a while.

2) Heaviest rain threats are early tomorrow morning, mainly Northshore & South MS, tomorrow night and into Thursday when several clusters will move through spreading the joy to the Southshore. There will be breaks in between. The good news is that models show them moving.

3) Low temperatures will be trending slightly cooler until Sunday.

4) Friday will see 50-50 shower odds with lower amounts than Thursday.

5) Saturday and Sunday will see some sun, but with a decent chance of afternoon showers and storms. Not a great day for Mom, so snag that restaurant reservation for an indoor table.

6) Not expecting improved weather until Monday, maybe even Tuesday.

Expect nice, mostly sunny weather from Tuesday May 13 for the next week or ten days with highs generally mid-upper 80s. The only chance for a brief shower might be Saturday the 16th or Sunday the 17th when a cold front approaches from the north - but this doesn’t look very potent.

I sent out my hurricane outlook yesterday. In general, summer looks to have average temperatures (average high mid-summer is 92) with above normal precipitation due to many afternoon and evening storms. I’d rather have that than the lower precipitation, and warmer than normal, but still disgustingly humid East Texas weather we received a few years ago.

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach shows temperatures stuck in the 70s through the weekend with a very similar precipitation chance. Thursday features the greatest chance for heavy rains. Maybe a bit more sun that here on Saturday and Sunday but also with shower chances. Not beach weather. The next two weeks will be much better.