High temps will slowly come down

Wishing for one of those epic cold fronts that turns the AC off for good and has us reaching for sweaters? That won’t be happening in the next 12 days, but our high temperatures will be 5 degrees cooler by the middle of next week. Other than humidity on Saturday plus some showers and thunderstorms early this Sunday morning, we’re in for a beautiful week of sunny weather with cool mornings and low humidity. Details follow in the graph and forecast discussion.

This ECMWF model forecast for 1 AM Sunday morning shows us why. A low pressure area in Indiana will drag a cold front our way with the showers and storms (red colors). Ahead of it, a warm southerly wind (red arrows) and behind it a cool northerly wind (blue arrow). As you can tell from the spacing of the solid lines (isobars for you weather geeks), the system will pack some punch up north, but won’t be as potent in Dixie.

In the long-range, I’ll speculate about when we could see a more substantive cold front and discuss the real possibility of a Western Caribbean hurricane in another 8-12 days.

The Foreca graphic captures the rainfall event nicely, but the temperatures need some tweaking. There’s a slim chance of a passing light shower late Saturday afternoon or evening. 20% chance at the most and chances appear to be greatest in Tangipahoa Parish and westward to Baton Rouge. Then, the main event shows up in the wee hours of Sunday morning. Not everyone will see the rain (60% chance — higher chances in Western and Northern areas (Hammond, Covington, Picayune), lower chances Gulfport and the Southshore. Then, maybe a few sprinkles when you’re in church followed by rapid clearing and lower humidity.

86 is a popular number for highs through Sunday and then on Tuesday — tack on a few degrees for inland areas. Otherwise, highs will stop in the low 80s, still a couple of degrees above average, but it’s another step in the right direction. Lows mostly in the 50s for next week gives us what I call Southern California weather.

Expect similar temperatures to persist into next weekend, the 24th and 25th, perhaps followed by a brief few degree warm up for the 26th and 27th. Models are advertising a more potent cold front for approximately Wednesday October 29. IF THEY ARE CORRECT…That could drop highs into the 70s and lows to near 50. Very late October is a favorite time for our first serious cold front, so that lends credence to the modeling.

In the tropics, a wave is traversing the Main Development Region and is forecast to survive as it approaches the Central Caribbean in 5-7 days. NHC is only giving this a slight development chance within 7 days and I agree.

However, models are trying to develop a tropical storm as it slows down in the Western Caribbean late next week where upper air conditions should be favorable and sea surface temperatures above average. With westerly winds aloft and fronts heading in our direction, this won’t be heading into the Central or Northern Gulf if it develops. Depending on the timing, it could plow into the Yucatan or do a U-turn and head back to the NE into Cuba — again, if it develops.