Hot & Dry for the next 10 Days

Our hot and dry weather will continue for the next ten days courtesy of systems that are virtually stuck. This happens when the jet stream folds up into a figure that looks like the Greek letter omega. So meteorologists call this an omega block.

You can see a slanted, colored omega whose center extends from East Texas to Wisconsin in the graphic below. The lighter black contours of pressure show that we are in a surface high, so high pressure aloft and high pressure at the surface means fair dry weather that’s not changing anytime soon. See “Long Range Ramblings” for when I think this will break.

Tropics are currently quiet but something will likely develop this week- again see the long-range section.

The Foreca graphic, with my annotation, says it all. There’s a few feeble attempts for some piddly showers that only 10% of us will see. Basically, if you’ve been looking at the cumulus clouds, you’ll see their tops are as flat as a 1955 crew cut: Too much dry air and subsidence in the middle of the atmosphere, but every now and then one lucky cloud builds up where another moistens the way giving you a few drops before it too meets the dry air.

Models disagree when the omega block will break and the deep tropical moisture will return. Some bring it back in as early as a week from Monday, Sept. 22, but I’m skeptical. Omega blocks are tough to break and I lean more towards models which favor Thursday Sept. 25. So keep watering!

The long-range (end of next week) is an enigma with no consensus in the modeling. Though pressures will be lowering by late next week in the Southern Gulf and deep tropical moisture will be massing there, none are developing any tropical storm. Some stream the moisture north before a cold front, others keep us in the heat with thunderstorms clusters moving north.

A system in the Eastern Atlantic is likely to develop slowly into Gabrielle this week and head north of Puerto Rico before re-curving back out to sea like Erin. This seems likely because the dry air has retreated northward and upper air conditions seem favorable.

What few are talking about is the low pressure area off the Carolinas that is heading NNW. It could take on some tropical characteristics and produce gale force winds on the Virginia Capes, but I doubt NHC will name it. Somehow, NHC names fish storms in the middle of the Atlantic based on satellite imagery, but doesn’t name some ones that produce observed gale force winds on the coast because their structure is not purely tropical. Weird things happen when you hire some Ph. D’s!

The three week probability of tropical storms shows that another storm could form behind Gabrielle. Some slim chances exist in the Gulf during Week 3, starting Oct. 29, but then retreat further south into the Bay of Campeche in early October (not shown). Very encouraging news indeed for those of us on the Northern Gulf Coast, but I want to see the models agree on a serious cold front before I sound the all-clear signal.

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach shows top notch, “wish you were here” weather. Highs mid 80s, lows mid 70s, sunny.