Hot, Dry Weekend; Wet by Wednesday

If you thought I’d disappeared, no I didn’t get attacked by a Grizzly in Yellowstone but the crystal clear, cool weather plus mountain splendor sure was better than what what you experienced.

Honestly, I was sorry that I wasn’t here to give you guidance during last week’s epic flash flooding event, but I did alert you that you that extreme events tend to happen when I leave town (Why is that, oh God?). I also mentioned to watch out for flash flooding. I’ll do an after-the-fact analysis and present it when I have time. Oh…..one more thing: The oddity of drivers turning around on the Twin Span only to encounter the Eden Isles tornado is an interesting one. If someone knows why they turned around and where I can find more details, I’d be interested.

On to the current weather. Hot, humid, but dry weather will prevail through Monday courtesy of an upper air ridge creating sinking motion that suppresses showers. This is the ECMWF forecast for Sunday morning with the solid red colors showing the ridge over the lower Mississippi Valley.

But..by next Wednesday morning, the ridge slips north over the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic with an easterly wave over us creating an inverted (upside down U) trough increasing shower chances (see map below). Some of the showers and storms could come in as early as Tuesday evening. Heat waves in July tend to end with a bang, thunderstorms packed with lightning - God’s version of fireworks. Above average showers and storms should continue next Thursday before settling down to the typical 30% afternoon and evening chances for the Fourth of July weekend.

The Foreca graphic is still forecasting high temperatures that are too low. I typically add on three degrees to the graph if I think it will be sunny. Highs should peak in the 95-96 degree range with stifling humidity on Monday and Tuesday. Sure, a heat advisory is warranted, but it won’t be worse than what we typically see a few times each summer. Real-Feel temperatures (a touchy-feely concept if I ever saw one) will reach around 108 degrees.

Foreca brings the rain in with a vengeance Tuesday evening, and they may be right, especially for Picayune, Slidell, New Orleans East and the MS Gulf Coast. Again, watch out for thunderstorms with vivid lightning. Everyone should get in on the action by Wednesday which should start early. Showers and storm chances are still high on Thursday, but will come down by next Friday and Saturday for many of us. Shower and storm chances will remain fairly high for western areas, such as the River Parishes, the Hammond and Baton Rouge areas for next Friday and Saturday. That’s because easterly waves move from east to west.

Expect typical summer with highs 92-ish and 30% scattered afternoon showers and storms for late next week and the weekend of July 6 and 7. Models are forecasting an up-tick in shower and storm chances for the 8th through the 10th. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see most of July’s rain in the first half of the month with amounts totaling in the 4-6” range. Then, models hint at a much drier end of the month. If that seems like a lot, remember that we get an average of about 6-7” in a typical July.

The tropics are quiet and no US or Caribbean threats seem likely for the next two weeks — probably the next month. Despite the flash flooding last week which was only loosely related to Arthur, I’m still expecting a below normal hurricane season.

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach shows storms moving in early Tuesday with above normal chances late Tuesday and most of Wednesday before settling down to typical levels. Highs low 90s through Monday then upper 80s. Though it will be a bit breezy through Monday (and probably in those storms Tuesday and Wednesday), the surf is not expected to produce red flags for rip currents. Bottom line; Nice beach weather for most of the next week. Besides, I love watching a good nighttime display of lightning from a beachfront condo as long as its not every night.