Hot & Humid Until Further Notice...

There’s often so much going on in the weather that I could easily write a fourth newsletter each week. But not this week where it’s a challenge to write anything new. The atmospheric flow over the U.S. and Caribbean is badly stuck causing meteorological equivalent of Groundhog’s Day in August. So pardon me if life repeats itself.

The upper level heat dome has dominated a good part of the Southern U.S., but even when it backs off to the west, as will be the case Thursday - Saturday, we can’t catch a break. This shows the German ICON model forecast for early Friday morning. The heat dome (solid dark red) is forecast to move to our west. Though this makes it more favorable for hot air to rise, the increase in shower activity will be modest at best because the surface winds, shown by the blue arrows, are not favorable. NW wind that’s divergent hinders the cause of getting some rain in here.

The Foreca graphic looks good through Monday. My apologies for being in a hurry and not labeling the graphic with high temperatures. 96 degree highs except for that one 98 on Monday seem disgustingly reasonable. The days with the better chance of showers are Friday, Saturday, and Monday. Even still, I’d rate it in the 20-30% range for most of us - maybe 40% in inland areas 30 miles from the Lake or Sound. After Monday, I think the heat dome builds back in and kills the rain chances until the following weekend.

Nothing is going on in the Tropical Atlantic and the long-range European model gives the entire Gulf almost no chance of seeing anything in the next month! Next weekend (Aug 29) will feature a similar break down in the upper level heat dome. I’m a bit more hopeful that this could give us some showers and back the high temperatures down to a more normal 92 for a day or two. Otherwise, I don’t see the heat wave breaking until mid-September at the earliest..

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach shows some decent beach weather for August. Highs in the low 90s with a breeze and several days without a shower threat are always a good thing. Next week, I think the graphic overdoes the rain after Monday .